The other anniversary

Today, there are two anniversaries.  The big one, which I have already alluded to in an earlier post two days ago is the 30th Anniversary of Mrs. Thatcher becoming Prime Minister.  

A rather lesser known anniversary is that the current Stormont Executive in which the DUP and Sinn Fein respectively hold the First and Deputy first Ministries, is now two years old.  

Plenty has happened in those two years.  It began with Revd.Ian Paisley becoming the First Minister at the twilight of his career.  Going into partnership with Sinn Fein prompted much anger amongst many of the DUP’s own supporters.  This has caused a schism within the DUP.  Their MEP, Jim Allister, resigned from the DUP, formed his own party and took with him a very substantial chunk of their support.  We do not yet know how much of the DUP is left.  There have been no opinion polls and the only yardstick we have had is the Dromore Council by-election.  

Ian Paisley retired to make way for Peter Robinson.  Straight away, there was difficulty as Sinn Fein boycotted executive meetings in response to apparent failure to devolve policing and justice.  This was a battle of nerves which the DUP eventually won.  Having accepted that they all faced electoral fallout if they did not get back to Government, they reached a deal on devolution of Police and Justice last November.  The DUP now control the timing of devolution of Police and Justice.   

The months of Executive inactivity meant that the Executive had to act quickly on certain matters.  They almost tripped over themselves as they brought in the Financial Assistance Bill described by some politicians as “emergency powers” legislation to enable certain welfare payments including winter fuel poverty allowances to be paid.  In the middle of the debate on the Bill, Mark Durkan fell foul of Parliamentary standards.   

At about the same time, it was near “crunch time” on academic selection.  With no yielding from the Unionists, no legislation could be brought forth to end it.  The Education Minister, Catriona Ruane faced with two assembly motions to put temporary tests in place chose to leave matters at an impasse.  This has forced Grammar Schools to “do their own thing.”  In effect, the system remains without a centrally organized transfer test exam and no orderly system for the administration of admissions.   

With the impact of the recession increasing, it was inevitable that the pre-agreed financing of the Programme for Government might need to be revised.  Pressure has come to bear on Nigel Dodds, the Minister for Finance to reach agreement through the executive for changes to the finance package. UUP politicians have made reference to a 1 billion “black hole” which so far, Dodds has denied. On the other hand, there has been recent acknowledgement by the DUP that there will have to be cuts in public spending.  This issue is set to develop further.    

The most colourful of Northern Ireland’s politicians is the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.  Who ever would have thought that the Minister for the Environment would turn out to be a denier that climate change was man made?  Who would have thought that he would have interfered with Government advertising campaigns to help people save energy? Rumour is growing around Stormont that Sammy Wilson will be removed after the June 4^th election.  If that is true, it will take away some of the fun for journalists and bloggers like me.  To be honest though, it would be the right decision.    

Other ministries have had a relatively quiet time, or have they?  Margaret Ritchie, the   Minister has been in the spotlight recently for having her decision to withdraw funding for Farset, which was quashed by the Courts.  Michele Gildernew, the Agriculture Minister, gave a demonstration of how ideology affected decision-making in her department.  She also  became embroiled in controversy over the handing out of grants under the Rural Development Programme for Northern Ireland (2007-13)   

Dissident Republican terrorism brought about the murder of a police officer and two soldiers.  The First Minister and Deputy First Minister had the opportunity to display solidarity.  Martin McGuiness, in particular, sailed as far as anybody from his party could go on criticizing the dissidents with his now famous quote: “they are traitors to the Island of Ireland.”   

Overall, it has been an interesting two years.  We have seen the parties bash each other like never before.  The opposition have scored some hits, most notably over double jobbing and expenses whilst the DUP and Sinn Fein have scored a massive own-goal over bullying and their war with the media.   

Of course, the defects in power sharing are there for all to see.  There is no such thing as collective cabinet responsibility and there is resultantly much more negativity in decision making.  The impasse on educational issues is a classic example of that. 

The next two years of the Executive are likely to be just as interesting as the first two.   In the Belfast Telegraph today, the Challenges facing the Executive have been identified in the areas of Devolution of Policing and Justice,  Education,  Irish Language,  National Stadium Funding,  the Review of Public Administration and Parades.  These are all contentious issues, yet somehow I feel that cuts in public spending will be at the centre of contention.   

As the recession continues to bite, one is left wondering how vulnerable to negative voter opinion the UUP and the SDLP are as occupiers of the 3 most high-spending ministries.  Will they be politically vulnerable to high-profile spending cuts?  Will the DUP be tempted to try and abuse its position as the controller of Finance Ministry?  We shall see.

CUs should step up attacks against Sinn Fein’s ideology to better inform NI voters

The reputation of Catriona Ruane as a the Northern Ireland Minister for Education is now so low that it would be hard to land a political blow at her which would bring it down further. 

Many attacks upon her inside and outside the Assembly have hit the mark time and again.  The politician who has landed more successful blows upon her than anybody is “knife-twister-in-chief” is Basil McCrea of the UUP.  Basil McCrea has the complete measure of Ruane, her party and their ideological encounters with running the education ministry.  

Catriona Ruane - ruined reputation

Whether or not Ruane is incompetent as a minister depends on which way she is regarded.  If pragmatism is a crucial element of ministerial decision making, then she clearly is.  However, let us not be fooled into thinking that if any other MLA from Sinn Fein had been appointed as Education Minister, that they would have acted differently.  Education is one area of government, unlike any other, where politicians are regularly required to make decisions that run along ideological fault lines.

The 11 plus/academic selection fiasco would not have been handled differently by a different Sinn Fein minister.  A different Sinn Fein minister would not even have settled for a further two or three years of the 11 plus, as was proposed and voted upon.  In fact, it is almost certain that all of the key administrative decisions apparently taken by Ruane were also taken with the Sinn Fein leadership.  Furthermore, the nature of Sinn Fein’s political belief system does not lend itself to pragmatism when it faces a conflict with its own ideology.

In his latest criticism during an assembly debate on underachievement he said:

 “Sinn Féin has no notion about education because its members did not bother to understand the facts. They come out with some standard Marxist line about equality as if that is the answer to everything. Equality does not work in this context because, although all children are valued equally, they are not all equal”  

I often speak to people within the Catholic Community about the problems of education.  Plenty of them know about Ruane and agree that she is a bad minister.  In her own constituency, her personal vote may be vulnerable.  However, I get the clear impression that the damage to Sinn Fein is still relatively slight. There is still very little appreciation among ordinary people that Ruane’s conduct as a minister is driven by left wing ideology. 

Basil McCrea MLA "Knife-twister-in-chief"

Part of the reason for this is a lack of comment about ideology in Northern Ireland’s media.  Both the UUP and the Conservatives need to find more and better ways of highlighting Sinn Fein’s ideology.   

With the SDLP continuing to support academic selection, they will never find a better political issue to act as a catalyst to break sectarian politics. 

Pressure on Sinn Fein after Alliance/SDLP motion passed for 2 year temporary renewal of the 11 plus

The chaos on the ground, presently being experienced by Primary School children, their teachers and parents resulted in a political manoeuvre in the Assembly yesterday.  

Yesterday, the following motion brought by the Alliance Party was approved by the Assembly 

“That this Assembly notes that schools may choose to use an examination as part of their entry criteria under the Minister of Education’s 2010 guidelines; calls on the Minister of Education to re-commission the CCEA test, she abandoned on 2 February 2009, that schools may then use for a maximum of two years; and calls on the Executive to agree new, legally binding guidelines for post primary transfer for use from 2011”  

The steps to abolish the 11 plus took place some years ago but this issue reached a crunch point in November 2008 after the UUP tabled a motion in the assembly, that the 11 plus be resumed for a further 3 years pending an alternative admission arrangement being found to replace it.  That motion was approved but ignored by the Education Minister, Caitriona Ruane.

I would be surprised if she adhered to this new motion.  If she did, it would represent something of a U turn for Sinn Fein.  However, I would not be totally surprised if she did.  The difference with this motion is that the SDLP and the Alliance Party are both behind it but they are both still opposed to academic selection.

 

Update: The Minister of Education, Caitriona Ruane, has rejected the motion.

Sinn Fein will continue to look inconsistent over security – Politicians should try to steer the agenda back to “normal” issues

The Stresses and strains within Sinn Fein are really beginning to show in a public sort of way.  

On Monday, in the Belfast Telegraph there was a report with a picture of Ian Paisley entitled “My former Deputy has shown real leadership says Paisley”.  He was obviously very pleased with the impassioned criticism of the dissidents by Martin McGuinness, even suggesting that McGuinness has put his life on the line.

A day later, it was reported that Gerry Adams stepped up his warnings against use of Special Forces.  

Gerry Adams knows very well that special forces have capabilities that the Police do not yet have.  He is also well aware of the justification that Sir Hugh Orde has for making use of them.   I do not know whether privately thinks that, on balance, it is right to use Special Forces.  He may actually believe, genuinely, that if special forces are used, it will increase the activity against the security forces and lead to more (net) loss of life that there would be if no special forces are used. 

I am sure that Ian Paisley would not put Gerry Adam’s statement in the category of showing leadership.  However, in a sense it was. 

Gerry Adams was not campaigning to the Government or the Police.  He knows that he will have no influence over the Government or the Police on operational security matters.  He certainly wasn’t trying to make any point to the people he was visiting in the USA.  He was campaigning to his own supporters, particularly those who are ex provisional IRA. In the minds of a significant number of Republicans, any conflict between dissidents and British soldiers is a form of war.  

Nobody knows how these stresses within Sinn Fein are going to pan out.  Sinn Fein will continue to demand that special forces are not used.  It may even suit them to have the media focus continue to debate what they say about security. 

Politicians from other parties, particularly the UUP, need to avoid the temptation of loudly criticizing Sinn Fein on security.  Indeed, there is no political capital to be made in doing that.  Instead, ways need to be found to switch the focus back to their record in office, particularly their failure in Government over academic selection and the eleven plus. 

Sinn Fein suffering defeats and feeling the heat

Trying to unravel what went on in the negotiations between Sinn Fein and the DUP leading to an end to the boycott by Sinn Fein of Executive meetings is still very much work in progress.

When the deadlock ended last November, little detail was revealed about what was agreed in relation to Police and Justice – We were told that there was a commitment by all sides to bring devolution to Police and Justice and that a series of processes had been agreed which would lead to it taking place.  We were further told that no precise date had been set for the devolution to take place.

We have not learnt much more since then except that DUP politicians have insisted that they still retained a complete veto as to when devolution would take place.  

On Thursday night on the BBC series Hearts and Minds, Gerry Adams MLA, Sinn Fein leader was interviewed by Noel Thompson.  A transcript of the relevant part of the interview can be found here on Slugger O’Toole.  The answers provided by Mr. Adams represent clear verification of the DUP’s position.

This is confirmation that on this issue at least, Sinn Fein came away from the negotiations “empty handed” in all but name.  

There is something very odd about that. A month or so before the deadlock ended, overtures had been made the Alliance Party was to be offered the Ministry.  We then heard that David Ford turned down the offer. At the time, it looked like an attempt to “shaft” the SDLP who were the next party due to take a ministry under the d’Hondt system.  On the face of it, Sinn Fein, were at the time, nearer to having the Police and Justice Department up and running than they appear to be now.

What, then, did the DUP concede to Sinn Fein in return?  On the face of it, they gave absolutely nothing. Previously, there had previously been some suspicion that concessions had been made on Education.  There was to be an Education Standards Authority created with its chief in place, Gavin Boyd, Chief Executive of the Education and Skills authority who as a known opponent of academic selection. It was suspected that the ESA would become a vehicle of mischief and eventually lead to the overturning of academic selection.  In fact, there was no provision in the bill to empower the abolition of academic selection.  The attempts by Caitriona Ruane eventually hit a wall when her proposals for legislation were rejected.

 What, then, was Sinn Fein’s motive for reaching agreement?  They seem to have “rowed back” very considerably from their earlier position. Was there a genuine concern that they were now vulnerable to losing their support in future elections?  

Consider the backdrop at the end of last October. By then, the Executive had not met for four months.  Sinn Fein was not getting what it wanted.  They had the opportunity to pull down the executive.  In fact, pulling the executive down would have taken away some of the flack from Caitriona Ruane. 

Both Sinn Fein and the DUP were indeed contemplating a complete break up. They had started to position themselves in a new “blame game”.   However, their political antennae must have been sharp enough to detect that both of them would lose considerably if the impasse continued.  Pressure and criticism were mounting.  Signs of dissident terrorism were beginning to emerge.  The Country was in a recession.  Two emergencies were looming.  One was the need to put something in place of the eleven plus (never resolved).  The other was the requirement to make available fuel poverty payments.  As we later found out, The Finance Bill, which came out in January included special powers measure and that attracted criticism that the OFM and ODFM were on a power-grab exercise.  In actual fact, the measures were put in place to mitigate the effects of the backlog of administration caused by the deadlock.

If there was return to direct rule, the DUP could say that they had stuck to their principles and not allowed Sinn Fein to have what they wanted.  Also, if they had backed down completely on Police and Justice, they would have lost face.  They were not in a great position to make concessions.

My conclusion is that the DUP had less to lose than Sinn Fein if there had been a return to direct rule but both would still have lost.  I also believe that having weighed up their positions both the DUP and Sinn Fein reached a view that it was in their interests to conclude a deal.  They saw the fuel poverty time bomb approaching.  Sinn Fein was in a much weaker position and that was reflected in their failure to secure a negotiated timetable on Policing and Justice.

Sinn Fein and the DUP have been used to the politics of negativity.  That has enabled them to become the mainstream nationalist and unionist parties respectively.  Being out of power has its advantages.  You can criticize and people will agree with you.  Now that they are in power they are more likely to attract the criticism.  They have responsibilities and people expect delivery.  What makes it harder is that they rely for success on their respective sectarian coalitions. Those stresses will yield changes.  It is only a matter of time.  More posts on that subject in due course.

Sinn Fein is finding being in power much hard to cope with.  In power, you need a sense of pragmatism.  That has deserted them in relation to Education and to a lesser extent, Agriculture.  Much of this has to do with the fact that they stick like glue to their ideology and this imprisons them in a political “glass cage”.  

Sinn Fein has taken a lot of flack.  It needs a boost right now.  They may get a “shot in the arm” if they top the European Poll in June.  Beyond that, it is hard to see what they have to look forward to.  All their political cards appear to have been played.

Today, at their party conference, Sinn Fein will present a well-managed united and triumphant position in front of the TV Cameras (they are good at that). Behind the scenes and in the back rooms, they will be considering their positions.  Things are gloomy for the party both North and South.  In the Republic of Ireland, they lost a seat at the last General Election and look likely to lose their ROI European seat.  There will be plenty of soul searching.  Would you not like to be a fly on the wall?

Right hook on Sinn Fein from Allister but who does it hurt?

An attack on Sinn Fein as a communist party from the TUV?  Hey what’s going on here?  Is this normal politics breaking out from a unio-centric unionist party?

On his website, the leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister made the following attack on Sinn Fein

 “In Europe, too, I see the craven folly of Sinn Fein. Sitting as an integral part of the Communist block, they peddle and support every anti-business proposition that comes along, whereas, deregulating and freeing up business is the essential route we must travel.

The Marxist agenda of Sinn Fein would cripple any chance of recovery and plunge us deeper into economic depression. I often wonder if those who vote Sinn Fein realise that in the European Parliament they are fellow-travellers with the Communists and avid proponents of the Marxist creed.” 

Firstly, Jim Allister’s observation is welcome because it highlights Sinn Fein’s left wing activities in the European arena.  I have already highlighted the left-wing credentials of Sinn Fein and again will continue to do so.  Further, I was delilghted to see on Television Basil Mcrea of the UUP attacking Caitriona Ruane in the Assembly on the basis of her (left wing) ideology.   So is normal politics breaking out across the board?

I wish I could say that was true.  The Conservatives and the UUP have genuine ambitions for normal politics.  It is entirely plausible that we will soon attract substantial numbers of support from people who previously voted Sinn Fein and the SDLP.  Can you say the same thing about Allister?  I dont think so.

Jim Allister has persisted with his attacks on the DUP for going into government with Sinn Fein as morally abhorant because of their links with the IRA.  Jim Allister’s ”right hook” at  Sinn Fein for being communist and marxist is now telling DUP supporters that their partners in Government are ideologically dangerous.   This is an interesting new tactic.  Is this a sign of a new electoral strategy from Allister?  

This would make sense.  Jeffrey Peel, Conservative Party Vice Chairman has already highlighted signs that the DUP lurching to the left.  Expect Allister to expand on this theme. 

For obvious reasons, I dont think Jim Allister will mind my last post either!

Conservatives & UUP set to raise the political decibels on academic selection

Following the final attempt by Caitriona Ruane to eliminate academic selection, what is the political fallout likely to be?

It may be that in the longer term, this political event will be seen as a watershed with far-reaching consequences in the longer term for Sinn Fein’s support base, the retention of Power Sharing in its present form and the development of normal politics.  For the time being, it is difficult to look beyond the elections up to the next Assembly election.

Firstly, the Minister’s failure will have a direct impact on Parents and children who are in P6.  Many more parents were in favour of retaining academic selection than were in favour of preserving the 11 plus.  Despite the fact that most parents wanted an end to the 11 plus, many did not realize that there would be no less stressful way of selecting children for grammar school on the basis of their ability.  The practical effects of political failure begin now as the teachers decide what to teach the P6 children.  From now on, parents are likely to become more pro-active than ever.  Some will be considering whether to sit their child in more than one school entrance exam.

As these practical effects hit home, one message that will ring loud and clear is that things are now worse than they were before the 11 plus.  It will be the most paraded political failure at Stormont since the Good Friday Agreement.  What then will be the likely effect of political support? 

One assumes that amongst Protestants, there will be little political impact.  Both Unionist Parties supported the retention of academic selection.  Most of the questions concerning political impact really apply to the opinions of Catholics.

Politically and ideologically, the SDLP stands “shoulder to shoulder” with Sinn Fein on academic selection.  The SDLP has, however, criticized Sinn Fein for its failure to reach consensus.  Will this gain them votes?  Such is the negative publicity given to Ruane that this should not be ruled out in the short term.

There is no doubt that many Catholics are annoyed with the attempted interference with academic selection.  There is an opportunity for the Conservatives and UUP to employ this issue as a bridgehead towards normal politics.  So far, the Conservative / UUP voice has been fairly quiet for understandable reasons connected with joint party organization.  Soon those matters will be settled.  It will then be time to increase the political decibels.

Ruane guidelines a waste of time and a waste of trees

Following her failure to obtain legislation to abolish academic selection, the Minister of Education has pressed ahead with the publication of guidelines to Grammar schools for the admission of children to those schools in 2010. 

The guidelines for admission contain the following criteria

(1) disadvantaged children entitled to free school meals are to be admitted in the same proportion as other children

(2) whether a sibling attends the school

(3 whether a pupil goes to a feeder primary

(4) the nearest suitable school

(5) whether a child lives within a catchment area

Some of these criteria were already in the old guidelines before the end of the eleven plus but none of them took precedence over academic results, which are not in these guidelines.  The entitlement to school meals criterion is a new element.

Given that the vast majority of Grammar Schools have already declared their intention to continue academic selection, the guidelines are about as useful as a chocolate radiator.  Producing them was a waste of time.  Printing them is a waste of trees.

Durkan makes politics look like self-mutilation

No sooner than I thought I had said enough for the time being about the political conduct of Caitriona Ruane did I discover this evening that Mark Durkan openly criticised a catholic grammar school in his school in his own constituency.  

I have pasted below a key extract from a piece written by Jim Fitzpatrick on the Politics Show website

“……The SDLP could suffer too. A party whose leadership used to boast of the benefits of the 11-Plus, now champions its abolition.

In a remarkable display of principle before political ambition, Mark Durkan even stood up in the assembly to back the minister and criticise the first Catholic school to opt for testing – Lumen Christi in his own constituency. With all Catholic grammars now following suit, which political party speaks for them?

Of course we know who now speaks for them dont we?

Ruane hits the buffers on academic selection

What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?  In political terms, the nearest thing to such a clash was the non-event which did not happen at the Executive meeting of Stormont last Thursday. 

This clash had been anticipated ever since the day the first Executive was formed following the Good Friday Agreement.  Sinn Fein, firstly by Martin McGuinness and subsequently by Caitriona Ruane have persistently pursued the destruction of academic selection and the Grammar School System. 

Of course, it is inaccurate to describe Ruane as an irresistible force.  It is more accurate to say that she is intransigent and inflexible almost certainly because she is driven by her left-wing ideology.  The description of the DUP as an immovable object is much more accurate as it sums up their politics since their recently retired leader, Ian Paisley formed the Protestant Unionist Party all those years ago.

Though the saga relating to the Grammar Schools is now about 8 years old, I begin specific reference to it from last Autumn. We were in the last year for the sitting of the 11+ transfer test before it ceased to exist under the provisions of the Education (Northern Ireland) Order 2006.  There had been no consensus on an alternative means of selection for Grammar schools.  The situation was becoming extremely urgent as we were about to reach the point where the present crop of P6 primary students would normally have started preparing next year’s transfer test. 

On 10^th November 2008, a motion, introduced by the UUP was passed by the Assembly calling upon the Minister to re-introduce the 11 plus for a further 3 years pending the implementation of an agreed formula to replace it.  She refused and I argued that she was unfit to continue in office and that sanctions should have been applied.Instead, she continued to pursue a previously rejected proposal to wind-down academic selection over a 3-year period and then make it illegal for schools to take into account the academic abilities of a child during the post-primary transfer process. 

On Friday, 31^st January, we learned that all Catholic Grammar Schools will be revealing their new admissions arrangements within days.  Some will have their own specific admissions test.  Others will use a Common Entrance Exam test.  With central cohesion over admissions gone, this is appalling for the children. Instead of having to sit one test, they could be sitting a number of them.  It is a recipe for chaos and increased pressure on children and their parents. 

With Sinn Fein’s pursuit of dismantling the Grammar School System having now hit the buffers, one wonders what next for Sinn Fein on this issue.  There is no doubt that their standing within the Catholic Community has been severely diminished now that the chaos resulting from the failure to provide an alternative to the 11+ has impacted directly on primary school children, teachers and parents. Sinn Fein now has little choice but to embark on a damage limitation exercise.  

Perhaps their best hope is that success in the forthcoming European Elections eclipses their humiliating failure.