No satisfactory rationale emerges from the Government on 7 billion loan to Ireland

So Britain is making a loan to Ireland of €7 billion, just like that. 

We are told that it is in the National interest for Britain to do this.  George Osborne has said that Ireland is a “friend in need.”  It has been emphasised that Ireland is the only nation with a land Border with the UK, that Ireland’s own banks have 40% of the banking in Northern Ireland, that Ireland is Britain’s largest export market and that British Banks are owed a very large amount of money by Ireland. Yes, but….

…was that money not available from European or IMF sources in any event?

None of this properly explains why Britain loaned the money. What would have been the position if Britain had not loaned the money?

What “bad happening” to the UK has been prevented by lending the money?

What good has the Government achieved which could not have been achieved without lending the money?

When you consider all that Mr. Osborne and Mr. Cameron have said, we have not actually been told anything.

The political problem for the Government is that, whatever the answers to these questions, they can not be kept a secret for very long.   Even if they could keep it a secret, the media will fill the gaps in their knowledge with accusations.  Already, Simon Heffer of the Daily Telegraph has written a very provocative piece, accusing the Government of indulgence.

“…we must help the Irish because of the Coalition’s commitment to the European dream,” accuses Heffer.

So please, Messrs. Osborne and Cameron, let us have the full facts. Let’s have it out now.

David Cameron offered merger with UUP during party conference

Northern Ireland Conservatives have been wondering, throughout the summer, why there has been no proper direction from the Party leadership about the direction in which they want to take the party.

In this week’s Impartial Reporter, it has been revealed that David Cameron offered to Tom Elliot that the Conservative Party merge with the UUP.   According to the Impartial, Elliott “angrily” rejected the offer.

I do not believe that David Cameron thought there was any chance that Elliott would agree.  Nearly 2 years ago, the Conservative Party tried to negotiate a merger with the UUP.  The proposal was rejected back then.  I believe that there was a large element of jest in the offer made by Cameron.  Had it not been anything other than an offer of jest, it would have represented a clear belief by Cameron that he regarded the UUP as having no other option, except to face political oblivion.

So where does this leave the Northern Ireland Conservatives?  Are they now free to fight the UUP full opponents and contest elections in the Assembly?

There has to be a reason why David Cameron made a jestful offer.  Apart from the likelihood that it indicates an element of contempt for the UUP, I am not yet fully reading the game being played by David Cameron.   Any insightful comments or information on this interesting subject would be welcome.

Working together

What a speech! Well, I would say that wouldn’t I? There is no way that a neutral would not have been moved by it. It had a powerful theme running through it. It had vibrancy. It was passionate. It was patriotic. It was inspiring. It was Churchillian.

We were reminded, as we have been throughout the conference, that the Liberal Democrats are playing their part. It is an example to everybody that there are times when we have to put adversarial politics to one side to build alliances in the National Interest. That alliance is, in itself, a source of inspiration.

I could say a lot of more specific things about the speech. I will leave the newspapers with the detail. What I would like to get across is the power of the theme.  It was a call to everybody in the Country to take their share of strain and pain.  In a nutshell, we are all being told that we have a contribution to make to a better, more cohesive, more prosperous society.  We have to work hard but there is a reward to look forward to and we will have prevented an even bigger mess for the next generation.

We should be working together.   Contrast Martin McGuiness.  Observe his attitude towards spending cuts and his dismissive attitude towards Owen Paterson’s invitation to consider the costs of segregation.

There is no sense in McGuinness’s mind that the economic pain should be shared, even though the Nation which he covets we should join is suffering much greater pain. There is no willingness to contribute any alternative thinking. There does not seem to be any desire, whatsoever, to engender a cross-community spirit into the Northern Irish people. No, he wants to retain their selfish “ourselves alone” detachment.  His country doesn’t need him!

We know that Sinn Fein is an ultra socialist party. If they had been in control of raising taxes and borrowing money, we know that we would be Greece.  Still, they do bear much of the responsibility for our present economic ills in Northern Ireland.   A public sector which represents 77% of Northern Ireland’s GDP is their legacy.  You would think they would want to do something useful to expunge the memory of it.

They now have elected politicians. They are there to do a job. People expect that of them. If they are not prepared to rise to the plate and take some responsibility, there is only one justified way forward for Sinn Fein politicians.  Resign.

Cameron’s Wizardry set to produce a long spell which banishes the dark Lord forever

As I watched TV yesterday, one scene hit me between the eyes.  It was the look on Peter Mandelson’s face as he got into the car after leaving 10 Downing Street.  That look spoke more than everything that he said in broadcast interviews during the day.  What was it that he was so upset about?

Was it the fact that Gordon Brown was resigning as Prime Minister?  I don’t think so.    Mandelson is not a friend of Gordon Brown, whatever he may say in front of the TV cameras.  No, he was upset that Labour lost a big round in the political power game. 

Last night, when Gordon Brown resigned as Party leader, all was set for negotiations with the Lib Dems.  By Mandelson’s estimation, Labour would push through a new AV referendum which would yield a “yes.”   October 2010 would then see in the much more appealing face of David Milliband as Labour Party Leader.   Milliband then goes to the Country within a 6 months (before the nasty effect of the spending cuts kick in) but whilst the recovery continues to make us all feel artificially better.  With a combination of a much more electable leader and a new voting system which amplifies tactical voting, ‘hey presto’, Labour gain enough seats from the Conservatives to propel them back into power.

The trouble is, the plan did not work.  The Conservatives played their negotiating hand too well. 

Now the Conservatives and Lib Dems have power, control and time.  New political reforms will be brought in which will see new constituencies with boundaries that reflect, as near as possible, population size.  Worse still for Labour, a full term of office gives the Conservatives and Lib Dems more than an even chance being popular by the time of the next election in 2015. 

The coalition will have led to a new electoral dynamic in British Politics with the result that there could be masses of Lib Dem voters voting No. 2 for the Conservatives in Labour/Con marginals and masses of Conservatives voting No. 2 for the Lib Dems in Labour/Lib Dem marginals.  In fact, the next election could be so catastrophic for Labour that they could end up becoming supplanted by the Lib Dems as the mainstream centre-left party.

Was that what Mandelson was thinking of?  It would not surprise me.  Maybe Cameron’s wizardry is set to produce a long spell in office and banish the Dark Lord from mainstream politics for ever.

PRIME MINISTER

David Cameron is our new Prime Minister.   

There will be a lot of writing about his prospects and those of the parties that make up the new Government.  There will be many difficult decisions to take and they will not be popular.  Much ink will be spilt on all these matters in the near future.

The man of the moment is David Cameron.  He is the 12th Prime Minister of Queen Elizabeth’s reign going back to Winston Churchill.  We have our first Conservative Prime Minister for the first time in 13 years.  Whatever his future prospects in politics, Mr. Cameron richly deserves all the acclaim which will greet him on taking office. 

Congratulations Mr. Cameron.

Conservatives on the verge of long term coalition with Lib Dems

Yesterday, following Gordon Brown’s resignation as Labour leader, the Conservatives took a calculated risk with their future by offering the Liberal Democrats a referendum on Alternative Voting (“AV”).  It was a move which was designed to prevent giving Labour anything concrete to offer the Liberal Democrats.  In a post written by me before the General Election, I indicated that the Conservatives should be prepared to make that offer.

Mathematically, it is possible for Labour to obtain a working majority with the Liberal Democrats by adding the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists.    That would take them to 324 MPs.  Bearing in mind that Sinn Fein do not take up their seats, that would be enough.  Certainly, there has been talk of Labour offering the Liberal Democrats a referendum on full proportional representation.  However, that would be a very different offer.  AV was in Labour’s manifesto.  PR was not.  The two voting systems are entirely different and there are many Labour MPs who will never accept PR.   The Conservative offer has effectively killed any chance that Labour had of remaining in power. 

The Liberal Democrats will know there are risks with entering into a coalition with the Conservatives.  Then again, there are political risks for them whatever they do.   A coalition with Labour would be without the legitimacy of an elected Prime Minister.   It would also be highly unstable and very unlikely to survive long.  That is why I am now confident that the Liberal Democrats will decide that their best position is in Government with the Conservatives.

There are those in the Conservative Party who believe that David Cameron has offered the Liberal Democrats too much.  I don’t think he has, not just for the reasons outlined above.  The Conservative objective remains to provide stable government for a minimum fixed term.  I now fully expect that term to be four years.  I also expect to see the Liberals in coalition.  That is what the majority of the Nation wants.  That is also what the Nation needs.

The future for Northern Ireland Conservatives

Jeffrey Peel has said that UCUNF is dead.  He may well be right.  In his last post before the General Election, Chekov suggested that it could not survive a bad result.

The General Election has left the United Kingdom with a hung parliament.  This could mean that instead of waiting for four years before the next general election, we may only be waiting for less than a year.  In addition, we have Assembly elections to think about next year.  If we are going to offer something attractive to the Northern Ireland electorate before these elections, important decisions need to be made now.

The UCUNF project offered something new to the Northern Ireland electorate.  It offered a chance for voters to participate in National Politics and select the next Government of the United Kingdom.  It was a worthy and noble project.  It was not the fault of the Northern Irish electorate that they did not take up that opportunity.  The handling of the project was a shambles.  Furthermore, once a deal was made for a single unionist candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the project became compromised. 

The Alliance Party and the Liberal Democrats achieved something that should have been an achievement of UCUNF.  Just before polling day, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats publicly took ownership of the Alliance Party’s election campaign.  The appeal by Nick Clegg to support Naomi Long, amplified by the report in the Belfast Telegraph, will go down in Northern Ireland’s political history as the first successful piece of campaigning in living memory by a National political party for a candidate contesting a Northern Ireland Parliamentary seat.   

The Ulster Unionist Party looks set to tear itself apart.  In one camp, there are those that want to draw the party towards a shared Unionist home with the DUP.  They will seek to influence uncertain members by telling them that the DUP has moved away from its “no compromise” days.  In another camp, there are those who would like to lead the party in the direction of a more progressive type of unionism.  There are people in first camp who will blame the UCUNF project for the party’s present position.  The reality is that those same people – some of them very senior UUP members – sabotaged the UCUNF project. 

I would like to think that the progressive camp would gain enough influence on the rank and file membership to seize control of the party.  Sadly, that is unlikely to happen.   However, even if, hypothetically, the progressive camp did seize control, there are so many senior figures in the other camp that the result would be extreme instability. A highly unstable UUP is not fit for a project like UCUNF.  This election has borne that out very clearly.  In conclusion, I can see no future for the UCUNF project on the basis of an alliance between the two parties.

Had there been some measure of success for UCUNF, I believe that eventually, it would have merged with the Northern Ireland Conservatives as part of a federal structure where the new party enjoyed autonomy over its local policies and candidate selection but still remained affiliated to the main Conservative Party.    

Northern Ireland Conservatives will appreciate that since David Cameron became our leader, our branch of the party has ceased to be neglected, as we previously were, like a forgotten outpost at the edge of the frontier.  At grass roots level, the party has benefited and membership has grown considerably in the last four years.  That is appreciated and it is hoped and expected that this support will continue.  Last year, I was very encouraged to hear that David Cameron’s commitment to bringing conservativism in Northern Ireland was a long-term one and would not be coming to an end if there were significant disappointments along the way.  I am confident that commitment will continue.

The deal over Fermanagh and South Tyrone has altered our position as a cross-community party.  The road to achieving normal politics in Northern Ireland now looks longer and harder.  If the decision to field a compromise candidate in that constituency had been left to Northern Ireland Conservatives, it would not have happened.  The fact that it did is in no small part due to the pressure on the main Conservative Party to win as many seats as possible when a hung parliament became likely.  It was a classic conflict of interest situation and it underpins a powerful argument for changing the constitution of the Northern Ireland Conservative Party.

Today, we find ourselves damaged by the UCUNF project to the extent that Conservatives are now tainted, by association, with sectarianism.   We need something radical to change very quickly, if we are to get back on course towards our long term political aims in Northern Ireland.

The conflict of interest point, which I have outlined above and the need to build up our credibility with Catholics, in particular, both form part of a case for more power and control to be given to Northern Ireland Conservatives over matters which include regional policy, candidate selection and the development of a new brand.  Effectively, I am advocating independence for Northern Ireland Conservatives on all crucial decisions except in relation to National policymaking and funding. 

Underpinning that proposal, a more autonomously independent Northern Ireland Conservative Party would have a much greater chance of recognition as a cross-community party by entrenching certain rules within its constitution.  One such rule should be that there are no sectarian deals on seats or candidates with other unionist parties. 

I believe this is the right model for Northern Ireland Conservatives going forward.  I also believe it is right for the main Conservative Party too.

David Cameron has played a blinder to get to this position

At the General Election, the Conservatives registered a count of 307 seats.   Throughout 2009, it looked as though we would win an overall majority.   Having noted the performance of UKIP, I am now convinced that what cost the Conservatives that overall majority was in large part connected with the withdrawal of the proposal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.  UKIP had always said that they would have supported the Conservatives at the General Election if they had maintained the policy.

There are some Conservatives (Lord Tebbit was one of them) who wanted the Conservatives to continue with the policy on holding a referendum.  They may have won an election outright but they would have been taking a much bigger risk with the National Interest and the party’s interest further down the line.  A referendum on the Lisbon treaty post ratification would have been a referendum on membership of the Euro.  The ultimate scenario could have spelt disaster.   Britain might have voted itself out of Europe and the Conservative Party might have fatally torn itself apart.

Looking at Conservative Policy and politics over the last four years, it is quite obvious that in appreciating the scale of the task for getting back to power, the Conservatives were planning the scenario of a hung parliament, just as they were looking at every alternative to avoid it.  Competing aggressively for the centre ground of politics was one part of the strategy.  Their green policy was not just an ethical consideration of the Environment.  Their libertarian approach to politics was not merely shaped by philosophy.  Much of the drive behind these policies was a determination to fight the ground of the Liberal Democrats.  In large part, this strategy succeeded.  There was little opportunity for the Lib Dems to advance until the TV debate during the election campaign. 

Consider also the Conservative strategy for Scotland.  The Conservatives did not win any new seats in Scotland.  However, they did buy political kudos from the Scottish Nationalists by agreeing to allow them to govern at the Scottish Assembly.  The Scottish Nationalists have six MPs.  They could, passively or actively, play a crucial part in the negotiations for a new Government in the next few days. 

Consider also the Conservative approach to Northern Ireland.  The Conservatives had hoped that the link up with the UUP would have delivered them extra seats.  Alas, by the beginning of the year, once it became obvious that the link up with the UUP was not going to deliver, the Conservatives got their hands dirty with the DUP, hence the Hatfield House talks and the Fermanagh South Tyrone deal.  The latter gamble did not pay off.  Whilst I did not agree with the deal, it was understandable.  We can at least say that it was out of Character for our leadership to agree that.  The hung parliament spectre was the driving force behind it.  In a future post, I will be setting out my proposal as to how the Conservatives in Northern Ireland should respond to the problem left behind by that deal.

Recently, it was reported that the Conservatives were promising an extra £200 million following further talks with the DUP.  That is entirely consistent with a stratagem to deal with the hung Parliament problem.  Unlike deals on representation and candidates, I do not consider that kind of deal to be pernicious.  The Government has to do what is best for the Country as a whole.  However, there are others who will criticise such a deal as pandering to sectarianism.  Indeed, Lord Ashdown yesterday was asking the question as to whether David Cameron was going to do a deal with “the Orangemen.”  

Lord Ashdown’s comments betray a fear within the Liberal Democrat camp that their hand might not quite be strong enough to push for for an unconditional committment to their holy grail of proportional representation in Parliamentary Elections. 

With the option of governing on the basis of a minority government, the Conservatives, just as they threw away the referendum policy on Europe, have to consider the National interest in their approach to forming a Government.  The Country has a debt mountain to deal with.  We have a war in Afghanistan.  The Country needs the strongest possible Government.  It is absolutely right that the Conservatives should give priority to trying to make a deal with the Liberal Democrats.  

Yesterday, David Cameron set out the Conservative position.  He made a momentous speech setting out bullet point terms for the Lib Dems joining in partnership.  He outlined the issues on which there would not be negotiation, such as the policy on immigration.  In proposing an all party committee on electoral reform, with a promise to implement legislation on the basis of its recommendations, David Cameron has effectively made it almost impossible for the Lib Dems to become involved in a grand coalition with Gordon Brown.  Indeed, I proposed in one of my recent posts that David Cameron should make some sort of offer on elections for precisely that reason.  David Cameron has now shot Gordon Brown’s Fox. 

Taking together everything that has happened, David Cameron has played a blinder for the Conservatives since the moment he became our leader.  Yes, he makes mistakes but he always manages to adjust very quickly.  It is hard not to look at his performance with a certain amount of awe.  He may yet turn out to be one of Britain’s greatest ever politicians.

David Cameron’s TV debate victory gives his troops the boost they needed

Last night, Conservative supporters were willing and wishing David Cameron to come out on top of the party leader’s TV debate.  David Cameron did not disappoint. 

Gordon Brown, having yesterday badly handled his “bigot” gaffe looked like a man whose confidence had been shot to pieces.  Indeed, he referred to it again. 

“There is a lot to this job and, as you saw yesterday, I don’t get all of it right.”

David Cameron managed to put clear blue water between the Conservatives and Labour on policy by highlighting the socialist tendancy to rely on the State to solve the nation’s problems. 

Cameron made two notable low blows against Gordon Brown.  He told the audience that Gordon Brown was unable to distinguish between the State and the Economy.  The nastiest punch of all came near the end when he accused Labour of regarding anybody earning more than £20,000 a year as being rich.

David Cameron needed to do more than just beat Gordon Brown.  He needed to come out on top of Nick Clegg.  He did not disappoint here either.  He shot two massive torpedoes into Nick Clegg’s cruiser on the Euro and Immigration. 

Commenting on the Lib Dem’s unstinting support for joining the Euro, David Cameron said this: 

“If we were in the euro now, your taxes and your National Insurance wouldn’t be going to schools and hospitals and police officers, they would be going to bail out Greece”, said David Cameron

Mr. Cameron also landed another blow on Nick Clegg over an amnesty proposal for some existing illegal immigrants.  The offending part of the Lib Dem manifesto says this

“We will allow people in Britain who have been in Britain without the correct papers for 10 years, but speak English, have a clean record and want to live long term to earn their citizenship”         [Lib-Dem Manifesto p.76]

Nick Clegg was caught in denial.  “I’m not advocating an amnesty,” he said.

It appears that Conservative prospects have gone up a couple of notches after last night but I would still not bet on a winning lead emerging in the opinion polls.  One thing is for sure. The outcome of the debate will sap Labour morale just as it will energise Conservative activists will go into the final week of the campaign.

Gambling first-past-the-post may be the best way to save it

David Milliband - Britain's next Prime Minister?

The prospect of a hung parliament has already started to bring out the worst in our politicians.  In particular, we are seeing how politicians are prepared to breach political ethics in order to advance personal or party self-interest.  Of course, they will argue, at the end of the day that their self-interest and the interest of the nation are inseparable.  

Just to give examples, we have already had our own local one in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.  David Cameron has effectively torn up the Memorandum of Understanding, reached with the UUP.  I don’t think that would have happened if the deteriorating position of Conservative electoral prospects had not loomed so large in the background.    

A few weeks ago, I highlighted the policy of the Labour Party to hold a referendum on a change of the system of voting.  It is a policy which Labour would never have concocted when it was in the ascendancy.   There are many Labour politicians who still believe, like the Conservatives, that the first past the post system is the one which is most likely to lead to strong elected Government.  Alas, the thinking behind the policy has little to do with the National interest.  It is Gordon Brown’s pure self ambition to remain as Prime Minister. 

If I was a novel writer, I would now be weaving a conspiracy theory into the facts.  It is February 2010.  Gordon Brown has just launched Labour’s green paper on changing the voting system.  The Conservative position is weakening.  Opportunities are knocking and two men, hungry for power, meet in the middle of the night at a secret location.  One of them is Nick Clegg.  The other is David Milliband. 

Back to the facts.  The Conservatives have declared, rightly, that they will not compromise on the first past the post system.  Unfortunately, it is not likely that the system will survive.  It is the one issue which shortens the odds of a Liberal – Labour coalition, rather than a Conservative – Liberal one. 

Nick Clegg - Probably Britain's next "King maker"

Nick Clegg appears to have put obstacles in the way of a Lib/Lab coalition.   He has said that the party with the Largest number of votes is the one which should have the primary right to be in power.  

So, assuming that the Conservatives have the largest number of votes, he will be talking, firstly, with David Cameron.  His next pre-condition, a change in the electoral system, has already been ruled out by the Conservatives, appearing to make a Con/Lib coalition inconceivable. 

The other pre-condition that Nick Clegg has laid down is the demise of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.  How does he expect to achieve that?   As a conspiracy theorist, I might have suggested that the path to power had already been mapped out for him.  

Actually, my desire for a conspiracy is probably a back-door way of trying to underrate Nick Clegg.  I will admit here that I did underrate him.   A few weeks ago, it looked as though he would be a leader in charge of a party that lost a third of its seats to the Conservatives.  Now he is on the verge of having some power.   There are parallels between his position and the Earl of Warwick (“the King Maker”) during the Wars of the Roses.  

It is possible for Clegg to generate a coup within Labour simply by positioning himself in the way he has just done.  This could turn out to be one of the most brilliant political gambits of modern times.   Once there is a hung parliament, the electorate will expect the Liberals to reach some sort of a deal and compromise.  The Liberals will not get total PR from Labour but they will see the referendum as an opportunity to advance their policy.  However, they will need to extract something from Labour to remain credible.  Gordon Brown’s head on a platter will become the compromise. 

There will be resistance to that scenario.  Supporters of Gordon Brown will complain that they would be dancing to the tune of Nick Clegg.   

However, there is much attraction in this scenario for Labour.  They will have had renewal of their leadership without losing power.  The acceptable and much more electable face of David Milliband will appear as Prime Minister.  He will open the Olympic Games.  The memory will be etched in the Public mind.  By the time of the next election, the economy will have strengthened and the bad times will be well and truly over. 

There are two apparent problems with that but I think they would be ignored.  David Cameron has made the point that if there is an unelected Prime Minister, there has to be another General Election within 6 months.   He can say that but there is really no precedent for this situation.  Perhaps a more difficult problem for Labour is their internal rules.  Gordon Brown will have to co-operate with the coup, to a certain extent.  He would have to remain party leader for a couple of months until the new Prime Minister is officially elected.  I believe, however, that Gordon Brown could be persuaded to go.  There is something in it for him too.  He can proudly proclaim himself as the man who led Labour and the country through the worst recession since the War.  He would have his own legacy.  As he sails off into the sunset, he might even manage a real smile. 

Can Cameron do anything to stop this?  He can win the election, of course but I am assuming that the Conservatives will not have enough seats to form a Government without a coalition.  

David Cameron - Gambling first past the post may be the best way to try and save it

Perhaps there is one way that he can make it very awkward for Clegg.  He can offer a referendum changing the voting system to AV, just as Labour has done.  This is a risk with the system which he may have to take as being the lesser of two evils.  

Some Conservatives would find this very difficult to swallow.  It is not in their manifesto and they might balk at having to explain this apparent “u” turn to the public.  However, Cameron has the communication skills to deal with that. 

If they did such a deal, the Conservatives would be in a stronger position to campaign against the change while in power.  Furthermore, Labour MPs in opposition, particularly those who were reluctant will not feel so bound by their own policy and be more likely to campaign against it.

 We have never had so much uncertainty in British Politics.  It is now looking increasingly certain, firstly, that Nick Clegg will be the “Kingmaker” and secondly, that we will still not know Britain’s next Prime Minister by May 7^th.