The future will be brighter in Northern Ireland under a Conservative Government

As we reach the final stages of the election campaign, the polls suggest that the Conservatives are going to gain the largest number of seats but will be just short of an overall majority.  The situation is still, of course, highly volatile but with the likelihood of a hung parliament, the importance of how Northern Irish voters make their decision in a General Election has never been greater. 

The backdrop for Northern Ireland voters is that with the UK in so much debt and the Republic of Ireland economy in so much trouble, there are very tough times ahead, whatever the outcome of the election.  However, I maintain that the outcome of the election, whatever your tradition, will be as important to you as it will be to any citizen in Britain.  What I say here is directed to anybody who is a voter in a Northern Ireland constituency, with the exception of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.  I have expressed my view on the circumstances of that constituency here and here.

All of the political parties that are represented in Northern Ireland have now produced their manifestoes. 

Sinn Fein was the last party to produce their manifesto.  Their policies are as vacuous as ever.  They do not take up their seats in Parliament.  Taken together, they have absolutely nothing to offer the electorate.  All that a Sinn Fein MP achieves by election is the title “MP” and a salary with expenses.  When the Conservatives are elected, they will pass legislation so that neither Sinn Fein MPs, nor any other MPs that do not take up their seats, will be able to draw upon expenses.

The SDLP, by identity, is an Irish Nationalist party but for the purpose of the General Election, I am not interested in their Nationalism. Historically, they line up with the Labour Party in the Westminster Parliament on matters which don’t specifically concern Northern Ireland.  What is most important, for the purposes of this election, is that SDLP MPs support the Labour Government.  If you watched the Northern Ireland leader’s debate last week, you would have heard Margaret Ritchie explaining that. 

If you habitually vote for the SDLP or you are thinking of voting for them, I ask you to think of them as the Labour Party.  If your constituency is North Down, it is also reasonable to treat Lady Sylvia Hermon, who is now supported by the SDLP, as a representative of Labour. 

NI voters need not concern themselves with Labour’s policies for Education or the Health service.  Those are matters for the Assembly.  However, I would urge NI voters to think in terms of which party is best suited to run the Economy and deal with other non-devolved matters such as Immigration.  If you have decided on the answer to that question, then I respect your voting choice if the Labour Party is still your preferred party of Government.

If you feel that Britain and Northern Ireland need a change of Government and you are broadly in agreement with Conservative economic policy, I urge you to put aside any notion of what has gone on before and vote for one of the 17 Parliamentary Conservative and Unionist candidates who are campaigning on behalf of the Conservative Party.

The Democratic Unionist Party currently has 9 MPs.  Their core policy for the UK Parliament is simple and clear.  They are telling unionists that they will use a hung Parliament in order to extract or defend funding for Northern Ireland.  If you are a Unionist and you are taking that prospect seriously, then I urge you further to take into account the following points.

It has been suggested that during the Labour administration, the DUP extracted concessions from the Government.  Peter Robinson has alluded to concessions given when they supported them over the 42 bill.  Do not be fooled by that or by anything else the DUP tell you.  There was, in reality, no funding for Northern Ireland as a result of that vote. 

The DUP may also point to Policing and Justice, where extra funding was obtained to support devolution.  There are two things to say about that.  Firstly, it was the last piece of the Devolution jigsaw puzzle.  The supportive funding was a one-off.  Secondly, the Government made those funding concessions to support devolution, not the DUP specifically. 

The reality is that Gordon Brown has not bribed Peter Robinson at all.  If Brown was into that game, the outcome of the Presbyterian Mutual Society problem might have been different.  Incidentally, savers with the PMS have every reason to hope for a different result when the Conservatives take office.  When in office, they will look at the affair afresh and consider taking a different approach.

If DUP MPs start looking for special favours from the Conservatives to keep them in power, the Conservatives will, firstly, appeal to Northern Ireland MPs to put the nation’s interests first, particularly in these difficult times.  However, they will not be making any concessions to the DUP.  Memories still linger of the “bribe” negotiations between Labour and Ulster Unionist MPs in 1978 and 1979.  Promises made by the Callaghan Government on the eve of no confidence motions erupted into national scandal.  The Conservatives would be taking a very bad gamble if they went down that route.

Voting for the DUP on the basis of potential leverage will not benefit Northern Ireland because it will not benefit the UK as a whole.  A strong Government with a working majority represents the best prospect for the UK during these difficult times.  

The broad way to differentiate between the Conservatives and Labour is in terms of their attitude towards state and economy.  The conservative approach is economy-centred.  Labour’s is state-centred.  Labour has never been able to break free from its “Robin Hood” approach to the economy.  Another description which sums up Labour’s approach is the “Nanny State.”  Whenever Labour has finished a spell in power, it has left the State sector larger, as a proportion of the overall economy, making it much harder for it to thrive in the future.

For people in Northern Ireland, the benefit of the Conservatives being interested in this region is that the Conservatives are committed to enabling Northern Ireland to break away from its dependance on the State.   The Conservative leadership has made its overtures on this subject.   This election represents an opportunity for voters in Northern Ireland to take ownership of that commitment by showing solidarity with the Conservatives and giving them the power that we all need them to have.

Unfortunately, because of the present state of the UK economy, Northern Ireland, like everywhere in Britain, is going to suffer from spending cuts during the first part of a Conservative administration.  That cannot be avoided.   In the medium and longer term, the Conservative Party is committed to reducing the dependency of the state sector and regenerating Northern Ireland’s private sector economy.  One measure for Northern Ireland, already promised to be implemented, is the is the reduction in the rate of Corporation tax so that it is consistent with the low levels of equivalent tax in the Republic of Ireland.  Further fiscal measures will be unveiled after the Conservatives have taken office while others, such as a review of Business rates, will be discussed with Northern Ireland politicians.  In conclusion, there is some short term economic pain ahead for Northern Ireland.  Further along, the future will be much brighter under the Conservatives.

The GAA, Nationalist Identity and Sectarianism

In recent times, the GAA has been compared with the Orange Order as being its Republican equivalent.  At the end of the continuum of sectarian bigotry where criminality festers, a GAA clubhouse is just as likely to be damaged as an Orange Hall. 

Just over a year ago, Margaret Ritchie MLA and Minister for Social Development set the cat amongst the pigeons when she attended a GAA conference in Belfast.  At the conference, she addressed sectarian attacks on Orange halls and GAA venues.  Her remarks on that subject were reported in the press and went down badly with members of the Orange Order.  In response, they handed her a letter of protest. 

On December 3, 2008, the Belfast Telegraph reported as follows:

 “The minister condemned all such attacks, but reportedly said that the GAA and Orange Order could not be described as reflections of each other, insisting that the GAA had reached outside its nationalist heartland towards other communities.

She was quoted as saying: “While the loyal orders have some progressive people around who wish to move them forward to a better place, they remain unlike the GAA, sectional and sectarian and deeply divisive in our community.”

At first sight, Margaret Ritchie’s viewpoint is not an unreasonable one to arrive at when one compares the big differences between the two organisations. If one organisation is about religion and the other about sport, they cannot possibly be opposites.  Furthermore, there is no rule against a person from any particular religion from joining the GAA.  In the case of the Orange Order, Catholics are excluded from membership. 

I differ with Margaret Ritchie’s remarks in two respects.  It is wrong to say or imply that the GAA does not have any connection with sectarianism.  I also take issue with her comment that the GAA had reached outside its heartland towards other communities.  The reality is that their success in this area has not been more than minimal and whilst it is fair to say that some Protestants have been involved in Gaelic sports, the GAA certainly has certainly not integrated with the Unionist Community.  At this point, I would like to discuss another sport played widely in Ireland which does integrate Nationalists and Unionists – Rugby Union.

Lord Maginnis is a well known member of the UUP.  He is my former MP.  He identifies himself as British.  Many years ago, Maginnis also used to call himself Irish.  That he felt the need to suppress the Irish part of his identity was part of the tragedy of the troubles.  It was a reaction not simply to terrorism but to part of the Republican campaign which was to squeeze out and eliminate the British identity from Northern Ireland.  Yet Ken Maginnis is still an Irishman.  He is also a fan of rugby and devotedly follows the Irish team.

The Irish international rugby team represents the 32 Counties of Ireland internationally.  It is not the only sport which represents both parts of Ireland but certainly the only major one in Ireland.  Before the match, the National Anthem Amhrán na bhFiann is played.  Though it was tolerated by them, Irish Unionists did feel somewhat excluded by its inclusion.  In 1995, the IRFU commissioned Phil Coulter to write a politically neutral anthem for the Irish Rugby team.  The song, Ireland’s call has been proudly adopted by all Irishmen.  By that action, the IRFU effectively nailed any identity problem that it might have had with its National team.  Ireland’s Call has now been adopted by the Irish Hockey, Cricket, Rugby League and A1GP international teams.

Unlike the IRFU, the GAA’s identity is tied to Nationalism.  This is not surprising given its history.  At the time of its inception, it formed part of a wider movement of cultural Irish Nationalism which now forms part of the history of the birth of the 26 county Irish State.

Throughout its existence, the GAA has nurtured its Nationalist identity through pre-match rites, its rules and its literature.  Rule 15 requires that the flag of the Republic of Ireland is flown and that Amhrán na bhFiann is played at all matches.  It was also an isolationist institution until relatively recently.  At one time, a player of Gaelic sports was banned from playing other sports.  Some of its past rules such as the ban on British security forces playing GAA games were undoubtedly sectarian. 

Unofficially, the GAA has been linked to Republican terrorism.  In the past, there have been allegations that it funded the IRA.  It is also alleged that some clubs continue to glorify IRA men. 

I would certainly not wish to brand all GAA supporters as IRA supporters or sympathisers.  Many of the people I know who are also GAA members would have nothing to do with the IRA or its memory but it is a fact that every now and then, some members of the GAA organisation make overt gestures of sympathy for the IRA in the name of that organisation. 

Rule 7 of the GAA rules strictly forbids sectarianism. Unfortunately, the rule on its own is impotent.  The GAA has failed to prevent a culture of sectarianism from having developed in its own following, hence the appalling case of Darren Graham, a protestant who, in 2007, felt compelled to give up playing GAA sports.  He later returned to his club after receiving an apology from the Fermanagh GAA Board. 

For all of the above reasons, it is hardly surprising that the GAA is perceived by many as being a sectarian organisation and one which the Unionist Community is generally alienated from.  

The GAA carries with it the nurturing of the ancient Irish sports, such as hurling.  These sports are a part of Irish heritage.  Elsewhere on this website, I have argued that the Irish Language should not be allowed to be hijacked by Republicanism.  That argument extends to all other parts of Irish heritage.   No part of Irish heritage should be the preserve of a single community. 

So can the GAA move forward from here?

In a sense, only they can answer that.  It all depends upon what they want from their longer term future.  Do they wish to enhance the interest in their sport?  Do they wish to adopt a modern sporting ethos by removing politics from its aims and objects?  Do they wish to improve community relations in Northern Ireland and combat sectarianism?  I believe that they can achieve all of those things by doing one thing.  That is that they follow the Irish Rugby Football Union model and take measures to change their identity to a cross-community one.  For example, could they eliminate rule 15? 

I am not the first person to make this argument.  Ed Curran of the Belfast Telegraph has reached a similar view about the GAA.  Whether anybody inside the GAA will give these issues serious thought is another matter.  We can but hope that matters will change for the better.

Ritchie’s speech looks like the SDLP’s suicide note

Today, Margaret Ritchie made the opening speech of her campaign for the SDLP leadership.   It has been published on Slugger.

Ritchie has reacted to political commentators who wanted to see her answer questions about her vision.  She began by talking about the economy.  She said this

“We have already shown in devolution that we have stronger ideas for developing our economy – both in the North and throughout the wider island. And clear thinking to bring our region out of recession”

OK, so devolution brings out the big ideas in the minds of the SDLP but what about delivering them?  What exactly were those ideas?  Ritchie does not say what they were but she then talks about “bigger” plans

“But we have bigger plans: we want more economic independence from Britain – and ultimately our own taxation and welfare regimes. Northern Ireland needs to be able to retain the gains made through better economic management. We believe in devolution so we want more of it. Broadcasting and Telecoms too”

For those not familiar with the Northern Ireland constitution, it is worth recalling how Government Power is divided up.  The Northern Ireland Act 1998 divides Government Power into three groups – excepted matters, reserved matters and transferred matters.  Transferred matters are the powers already passed to Stormont.  Reserved matters, which still include Police and Justice, are powers which may be transferred to the Northern Ireland Assembly at a future date.  Excepted Powers are those unlikely ever to be transferred.  Here is the complete list

 Reserved Matters

• Criminal law
• Police
• Navigation and civil aviation
• International trade and financial markets
• Telecommunications/postage
• The foreshore and sea bed
• Disqualification from Assembly membership
• Consumer safety
• Intellectual property

Excepted matters

• Royal succession
• International relations
• Defence and armed forces
• Nationality, immigration and asylum
• Taxes levied across the United Kingdom as a whole
• All elections held in Northern Ireland
• Currency
• Conferring of honours
• International Treaties

So Ritchie wants telecommunications and postage to be transferred.  Is that such a big idea?  When you look at the list of reserved matters, there is not much that is left of particular note.  Police and Justice are the big ones and will soon go.  Consumer safety and Intellectual property rights will be subsumed to European Law.  Her proposal for a Northern Ireland taxation regime relates to excepted powers.  This is a complete non-starter.  However, what she said next that will have got the unionist hands scratching heads. 

“At the same time we want to deepen our North/South economic integration. And get serious about the green economy as a source of competitive advantage.
As a first step we will campaign for an all-island independent Environmental Protection Agency and a single all-island Regulator for Energy.”

There is nothing wrong with wanting to deepen economic integration with the Republic of Ireland, provided this is designed to promote business and does not involve any transfer of powers.  However, setting up an environmental protection agency does imply the transfer of powers.  That would require special legislation from the UK Parliament, which would not be enacted unless there was all-party consensus in Northern Ireland.   It also smacks of a policy which has as its ulterior motive not the economic well-being of Northern Ireland but an incremental slow-creeping step towards a united Ireland. 

Credence for this deduction comes from the words of Ritchie herself.  Later on in her speech she unambiguously puts nationalism at the centre of her vision for SDLP policy.  After setting out her desire for a United Ireland, she says this

“I will take our unique ideas for achieving unity to the very heart of decision-making in Dublin. I will campaign hard for the establishment of a new all-party Commission with a clear remit to agree a modern, inclusive vision for a United Ireland.”

So there you have it.  So long as Ritchie is leader of the SDLP, Nationalism will be at the centre of that party’s politics.  More Nationalism and republicanism in Northern Ireland would be an unwelcome distraction from normal “bread and butter” politics.  Contrary to Ritchie’s laudible aim of reconciling society, such policies are divisive. 

I have already stated in an earlier post that the SDLP can play a role in the elimination of sectarianism from politics by “parking” nationalism and campaigning with the Labour Party. 

Margaret Ritchie, instead trying to steer her party away from Sinn Fein has decided to do an ‘about turn’ and rally the SDLP army to make one more glorious charge for the ground lost to Sinn Fein. 

Do the SDLP rank and file realise that this is about to happen?  I fear not.  The following words come to mind

“Not tho’ the soldier knew, someone had blunder’d… Charging an army, while all the world wonder’d.”       ["The Charge of the Light Brigade" - Tennison (1854)].

Ritchie’s speech looks like the SDLP’s suicide note.

SDLP leadership election very important for Northern Ireland’s future

The SDLP leadership election is an exceptionally important one from the point of view of the future direction of Northern Ireland Politics

Liam Clarke’s article in today’s Sunday Times sets out the background and the backdrop.  Few would disagree that since John Hume handed over the leadership of the party to Mark Durkan, the latter has been able to prevent the Sinn Fein “cuckoo” from starving the SDLP of voters who would normally be expected to vote for them.   

As well as being ‘cuckooed’ the SDLP, has have been out-spent, out-organised, out-marketed and out-rhetoricised by Sinn Fein in all of the elections from 2001 to 2007.  Supporters of the SDLP had hoped that following a term in office, where Sinn Fein’s political shortcomings were laid bare for all to see, that they would see a revival in their fortunes.  That did not happen in the 2009 euro elections.  The only ‘crumb’ you could give to the SDLP is that the decline in their vote share may have been arrested.   

I say ‘may’ because I am not sure about that at all.  During the Euro elections, Sinn Fein were not ‘firing on all cylinders’ knowing that Barbara de Brun’s election as a Euro MP was a banker and concentrating their resources on trying to get an MEP elected in a ROI constituency.  The SDLP put up an able and respected candidate in Alban McGuinness.  Alas, all they were able to achieve was an increase of 0.3% of their share of the vote.   

I have said previously on this blog site that Catholic voters who by their nature share core Conservative values are the target of future Conservative election campaigns in Northern Ireland.  Almost certainly, most of those voters habitually support the SDLP.  Earlier this year, Mark Durkan alienated some of those supporters over his remarks on academic selection. 

However much commentators will today ridicule any notion that the Conservatives in Alliance with the UUP can win the support of Catholic voters, make no mistake about one thing.  Those voters are on the Conservative menu.  The trouble is, with the exception of those few with a lot of political foresight, it is probably too early to expect members of the SDLP to see the Conservatives as a threat.  That is unfortunate because it does mean that the SDLP are more likely to continue looking at Sinn Fein to see if there is a way they can win back previous support.

I do not believe the SDLP can ever ‘out-nationalist’ Sinn Fein.  There are signs that the SDLP have been thrashing around looking for ways to achieve this.  For example, they produced their own draft Irish Language Act.  It was an extremely Nationalist document which went way beyond what was likely to have been negotiated at St. Andrews.  Another ploy the SDLP have tried over many years is to ‘out-moralise’ Sinn Fein by reminding the electorate that they do not carry the baggage of violence that is so closely associated with Sinn Fein’s past.  It may be that the supporters they have left will never vote for Sinn Fein for that very reason.  However, as a populist trick to win back previous voters, it will never work.

Most commentators, including Liam Clarke, have pointed out that of the two candidates on offer, neither of them have the charisma to “light bonfires” in the minds of the voters.  So where does the SDLP go from here?

In his interview with the BBC, former leader Seamus Mallon talks about the need for ideology.  I believe that he is talking about non-nationalist ideology, particularly since he expressed the need for all Northern Ireland parties to do something similar.

In my opinion, there is only one direction in which the SDLP can go to avoid medium term political extinction.  I have already summarised this in a comment on Slugger at this thread comment No. 35.  I repeat what I have said here:

“Firstly, the SDLP should make social democracy its dominant working ideology and “park” its Nationalist ideology.  In other words, it would only need to draw on its Nationalist ideology if there was a referendum on a united Ireland.  In a sense, that is a mirror image of what the Conservatives want to do with the UUP – to make Conservativism the dominant ideology and “park” unionism.

Keeping Unionism and Nationalism out of election politics can be done with the overwhelming majority of day-to-day political issues.  There are some political issues that are not.  That brings me to the second strand of the proposed solution.  …..  It is that those parties who want to take sectarianism from politics come together and set up a joint committee. The task of that committee would be to negotiate a way forward on the basis of consensus.  Each party involved in these talks would have to agree to certain ethics.  Those might be (a) to vigorously look for solutions which are in the best interest of NI as a whole and not just one section of it (b) that no any elected member of any political party involved makes a public statement of their personal point of view (c) That no public statements are made about the work of that committee except jointly agreed statements. An agreement of this kind would require parties to discipline their members when making public statements on certain topics such as parades.

Most of the kind of issues that I am talking about here are likely to be cultural issues.  For example, I think it is entirely possible for such a joint committee to agree a way forward for the Irish Language.

The task of breaking the sectarian mould for either UCUNF or the SDLP does not end there. The parties still have to develop trust with those voters that they are asking to cross the sectarian divide. That leads me to the third strand.

An open Alliance with the UK Labour Party running along similar lines to the UCU-NF pact would not just give all NI voters the opportunity to vote Labour on Westminster issues.  That would swing the door wide open to would be protestant labour voters.

What would hold the SDLP back from such a course?  I think it is something to do with the view they take of Sinn Fein as their competition.  If they did pursue the path I have suggested, who is to say that they will not do Sinn Fein a lot of damage”

As readers will observe from this comment, there is a recognition from this proposal that a joint or multilateral party effort to take sectarianism out of Northern Ireland politics is more likely to succeed than if only one party is trying to achieve it.  Furthermore, I believe that a similar initiative will happen.  It is a question of  ‘when’, rather than ‘if’. 

I understand that this election is not likely to happen until their party conference in February.  In all sincerity, I hope that that SDLP membership ‘graspes the nettle’ and uses the time to develop this theme for its sake and for the sake of Northern Ireland.

The other anniversary

Today, there are two anniversaries.  The big one, which I have already alluded to in an earlier post two days ago is the 30th Anniversary of Mrs. Thatcher becoming Prime Minister.  

A rather lesser known anniversary is that the current Stormont Executive in which the DUP and Sinn Fein respectively hold the First and Deputy first Ministries, is now two years old.  

Plenty has happened in those two years.  It began with Revd.Ian Paisley becoming the First Minister at the twilight of his career.  Going into partnership with Sinn Fein prompted much anger amongst many of the DUP’s own supporters.  This has caused a schism within the DUP.  Their MEP, Jim Allister, resigned from the DUP, formed his own party and took with him a very substantial chunk of their support.  We do not yet know how much of the DUP is left.  There have been no opinion polls and the only yardstick we have had is the Dromore Council by-election.  

Ian Paisley retired to make way for Peter Robinson.  Straight away, there was difficulty as Sinn Fein boycotted executive meetings in response to apparent failure to devolve policing and justice.  This was a battle of nerves which the DUP eventually won.  Having accepted that they all faced electoral fallout if they did not get back to Government, they reached a deal on devolution of Police and Justice last November.  The DUP now control the timing of devolution of Police and Justice.   

The months of Executive inactivity meant that the Executive had to act quickly on certain matters.  They almost tripped over themselves as they brought in the Financial Assistance Bill described by some politicians as “emergency powers” legislation to enable certain welfare payments including winter fuel poverty allowances to be paid.  In the middle of the debate on the Bill, Mark Durkan fell foul of Parliamentary standards.   

At about the same time, it was near “crunch time” on academic selection.  With no yielding from the Unionists, no legislation could be brought forth to end it.  The Education Minister, Catriona Ruane faced with two assembly motions to put temporary tests in place chose to leave matters at an impasse.  This has forced Grammar Schools to “do their own thing.”  In effect, the system remains without a centrally organized transfer test exam and no orderly system for the administration of admissions.   

With the impact of the recession increasing, it was inevitable that the pre-agreed financing of the Programme for Government might need to be revised.  Pressure has come to bear on Nigel Dodds, the Minister for Finance to reach agreement through the executive for changes to the finance package. UUP politicians have made reference to a 1 billion “black hole” which so far, Dodds has denied. On the other hand, there has been recent acknowledgement by the DUP that there will have to be cuts in public spending.  This issue is set to develop further.    

The most colourful of Northern Ireland’s politicians is the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.  Who ever would have thought that the Minister for the Environment would turn out to be a denier that climate change was man made?  Who would have thought that he would have interfered with Government advertising campaigns to help people save energy? Rumour is growing around Stormont that Sammy Wilson will be removed after the June 4^th election.  If that is true, it will take away some of the fun for journalists and bloggers like me.  To be honest though, it would be the right decision.    

Other ministries have had a relatively quiet time, or have they?  Margaret Ritchie, the   Minister has been in the spotlight recently for having her decision to withdraw funding for Farset, which was quashed by the Courts.  Michele Gildernew, the Agriculture Minister, gave a demonstration of how ideology affected decision-making in her department.  She also  became embroiled in controversy over the handing out of grants under the Rural Development Programme for Northern Ireland (2007-13)   

Dissident Republican terrorism brought about the murder of a police officer and two soldiers.  The First Minister and Deputy First Minister had the opportunity to display solidarity.  Martin McGuiness, in particular, sailed as far as anybody from his party could go on criticizing the dissidents with his now famous quote: “they are traitors to the Island of Ireland.”   

Overall, it has been an interesting two years.  We have seen the parties bash each other like never before.  The opposition have scored some hits, most notably over double jobbing and expenses whilst the DUP and Sinn Fein have scored a massive own-goal over bullying and their war with the media.   

Of course, the defects in power sharing are there for all to see.  There is no such thing as collective cabinet responsibility and there is resultantly much more negativity in decision making.  The impasse on educational issues is a classic example of that. 

The next two years of the Executive are likely to be just as interesting as the first two.   In the Belfast Telegraph today, the Challenges facing the Executive have been identified in the areas of Devolution of Policing and Justice,  Education,  Irish Language,  National Stadium Funding,  the Review of Public Administration and Parades.  These are all contentious issues, yet somehow I feel that cuts in public spending will be at the centre of contention.   

As the recession continues to bite, one is left wondering how vulnerable to negative voter opinion the UUP and the SDLP are as occupiers of the 3 most high-spending ministries.  Will they be politically vulnerable to high-profile spending cuts?  Will the DUP be tempted to try and abuse its position as the controller of Finance Ministry?  We shall see.

DUP wrong not to try to reach consensus with other parties over public finances

What has Nigel Dodds got in common with Gordon Brown as a politician?  They are both being accused of being in denial over the state of public finances.

Quite obviously, the problems of Gordon Brown’s denial are far greater than those connected with Nigel Dodds but the latter could be a serious problem for the people of Northern Ireland. 

It had been pointed out by the UUP spokesman on Finances, David McNarry, that there was a “black hole” in the budget amounting to £1.1 billion.  This has been corroberated, to a certain extent, by the Minister for Social Development, Margaret Ritchie, who has said that her department alone will suffer a £200 million shortfall over the next two years.  Sinn Fein and DUP ministers in other departments have been less vociferous.  Is this a coincidence?

The DUP’s response to this criticism came from a spokeswoman in the Department of Finance.  To quote the Newsletter of 22nd January, she said 

“the minister had made it clear that the shortfall would be accounted for by clawing back underpsends from departments at the end of the financial years and by taking “tough choices”, that is, cutting schemes that had been scheduled”

By way of further explanation, the spokesperson said

“”In terms of the £1.1 billion, a large number of the spending proposals put forward as part of the Strategic Stock take process are discretionary or even speculative, whilst others may not materialise to the extent currently forecast by departments.”

Having seen Margaret Ritchie’s interview in the Politics Show, it would seem that her budget is hardly “discretionary or speculative”.  She was talking about genuine shortfalls in spending requirements for much needed social housing.

The DUP has been invited by the UUP to meet, discuss and re-assess the programme for Government.  Yesterday at Stormont, Nigel Dodds defended his budget and firmly rejected a re-write of the programme for Government.

I am not in possession of the facts.  I only have the media plus the utterances of politicians on their websites to go on.   If these “black holes” turn out to be correct then either there will be a budget deficit which will lead to greater deterioration in the finances of the NI Government in the future or certain government programmes will run out of money and come to a grinding halt.    

I dont know who is right.  If the DUP is wrong, then somewhere down the line it should suffer the political consequences.   Meanwhile, confidence is important to all of us, particularly, when we are probably in the worst recessions since the 1930s.  Whether Dodds  is right or not, the suspicion of a “black hole” will remain.  By failing to engage with its political opponents with a detailed discussion about the programme for government with a view of reaching consensus, the DUP has not acted in the national interest.