Welcome Fianna Fail

Monday was an extraordinary day for Northern Ireland politics.  Firstly, there was the opinion poll, reported in the Belfast Telegraph showing the Martin McGuinness was Northern Ireland’s most popular politician.

Later, we had the announcement, confirmed today, that Fianna Fail had its first elected representative in Northern Ireland in Gerry McHugh, MLA.

Gerry McHugh was, until 2007, a member of Sinn Fein.  He left Sinn Fein in November 2007 citing “lack of democracy” in his own party as the reason for his departure.  According to a BBC report, he also said this

“I feel the direction Sinn Fein is taking is more about appeasement of the British government and administrating British rule in Ireland rather than working towards the end of British occupation.”

On Slugger December 7, 2007, he is also reported as having said this

“Assembly structures support this – at both committee and plenary level unionists have majority control.  What was agreed at St Andrews cannot be delivered without unionist approval.”

Further along, the post also said

‘Mr McHugh said Sinn Féin’s decision to endorse policing in the north was a “factor” in his decision.

“I have no difficulties with the idea of civil policing but I have a difficulty with the excessive amounts of MI5 and military spooks operating in the six counties,” he said.

So it appeared at the time that he was against the St. Andrews Agreement and in particular, Sinn Fein’s acceptance of the PSNI as Northern Ireland’s official police.  He appeared to be slightly more hard-line than Sinn Fein officially was.

The Fianna Fail Party and Bertie Ahern, in particular, gave unconditional support to St. Andrews.

So already, Fianna Fail have accepted a “hard liner” into their ranks and one who is averse to ‘control freakery’.  That is most interesting.  In a sense, it is Sinn Fein’s ability to keep discipline with its membership that has been one of the hallmarks of its success.  One wonders how Mr. McHugh will react when Fianna Fail start to put their own restrictions on his political conduct. 

McHugh also needs to ‘get real’ in relation to the ‘spooks.’  Were it not for those excellent brave people doing field intelligence work, we would by now have a tradgedy on our hands beginning with a dead police officer in Garrison.

It is going to be fascinating to see how Sinn Fein reacts.  Will this make it more or less likely that Martin McGuiness will break the Executive if the DUP do not deliver a date for P & J by Christmas?  Let the drama begin.

It is very hard, at this stage, to predict the impact of Fianna Fail onto the Northern Ireland Political scene.  Could their success depend upon how many big names defect from Sinn Fein and the SDLP?   Could this mark the death of the SDLP?  Could their entry into politics split the Nationalist vote and kill Martin McGuinnness’s dream of becoming first minister?

f they attract no more than a token number of big names, Fianna Fail might begin with similar difficulties to the ones facing the Conservatives in the late 1980s.  Fermanagh could become to Northern Ireland Fianna Fail what North Down eventually became to Northern Ireland Conservatives but their footholds might remain only that unless Fianna Fail’s central party invests substantial resources into their campaigning, as the Conservatives have recently began to do. 

They have one possible problem which the Conservatives do not have.  They are operating politics across a state boundary.  That causes difficulties as policy in one state may not be appropriate for the other.  On the other hand, Fianna Fail, as a populist party with no particular ideology may be the best Irish party suited to cross-border “horses for courses” politics.  On that particular aspect, they have a serious edge over Sinn Fein who are wedded rigidly to the left of the political spectrum.   

In time, Fianna Fail could become serious political opponents of our party but that is for the future. 

Those are my observations.  The truth is, I have absolutely no idea how what the future holds for Fianna Fail in Northern Ireland.  Today, meanwhile,  is a day for goodwill.   The Conservative Party will never allow this event to get in the way of the friendships which Britain has developed with the Republic of Ireland as a neighbouring state. 

We welcome the arrival of Fianna Fail into Northern Ireland politics.  We hope that their presence in the Northern Ireland political arena will create new opportunities to do political business with them.   We hope that there will be opportunities for both of our respective parties to implement great joint political initiatives which will enhance the lives of the people of Northern Ireland.

SDLP leadership election very important for Northern Ireland’s future

The SDLP leadership election is an exceptionally important one from the point of view of the future direction of Northern Ireland Politics

Liam Clarke’s article in today’s Sunday Times sets out the background and the backdrop.  Few would disagree that since John Hume handed over the leadership of the party to Mark Durkan, the latter has been able to prevent the Sinn Fein “cuckoo” from starving the SDLP of voters who would normally be expected to vote for them.   

As well as being ‘cuckooed’ the SDLP, has have been out-spent, out-organised, out-marketed and out-rhetoricised by Sinn Fein in all of the elections from 2001 to 2007.  Supporters of the SDLP had hoped that following a term in office, where Sinn Fein’s political shortcomings were laid bare for all to see, that they would see a revival in their fortunes.  That did not happen in the 2009 euro elections.  The only ‘crumb’ you could give to the SDLP is that the decline in their vote share may have been arrested.   

I say ‘may’ because I am not sure about that at all.  During the Euro elections, Sinn Fein were not ‘firing on all cylinders’ knowing that Barbara de Brun’s election as a Euro MP was a banker and concentrating their resources on trying to get an MEP elected in a ROI constituency.  The SDLP put up an able and respected candidate in Alban McGuinness.  Alas, all they were able to achieve was an increase of 0.3% of their share of the vote.   

I have said previously on this blog site that Catholic voters who by their nature share core Conservative values are the target of future Conservative election campaigns in Northern Ireland.  Almost certainly, most of those voters habitually support the SDLP.  Earlier this year, Mark Durkan alienated some of those supporters over his remarks on academic selection. 

However much commentators will today ridicule any notion that the Conservatives in Alliance with the UUP can win the support of Catholic voters, make no mistake about one thing.  Those voters are on the Conservative menu.  The trouble is, with the exception of those few with a lot of political foresight, it is probably too early to expect members of the SDLP to see the Conservatives as a threat.  That is unfortunate because it does mean that the SDLP are more likely to continue looking at Sinn Fein to see if there is a way they can win back previous support.

I do not believe the SDLP can ever ‘out-nationalist’ Sinn Fein.  There are signs that the SDLP have been thrashing around looking for ways to achieve this.  For example, they produced their own draft Irish Language Act.  It was an extremely Nationalist document which went way beyond what was likely to have been negotiated at St. Andrews.  Another ploy the SDLP have tried over many years is to ‘out-moralise’ Sinn Fein by reminding the electorate that they do not carry the baggage of violence that is so closely associated with Sinn Fein’s past.  It may be that the supporters they have left will never vote for Sinn Fein for that very reason.  However, as a populist trick to win back previous voters, it will never work.

Most commentators, including Liam Clarke, have pointed out that of the two candidates on offer, neither of them have the charisma to “light bonfires” in the minds of the voters.  So where does the SDLP go from here?

In his interview with the BBC, former leader Seamus Mallon talks about the need for ideology.  I believe that he is talking about non-nationalist ideology, particularly since he expressed the need for all Northern Ireland parties to do something similar.

In my opinion, there is only one direction in which the SDLP can go to avoid medium term political extinction.  I have already summarised this in a comment on Slugger at this thread comment No. 35.  I repeat what I have said here:

“Firstly, the SDLP should make social democracy its dominant working ideology and “park” its Nationalist ideology.  In other words, it would only need to draw on its Nationalist ideology if there was a referendum on a united Ireland.  In a sense, that is a mirror image of what the Conservatives want to do with the UUP – to make Conservativism the dominant ideology and “park” unionism.

Keeping Unionism and Nationalism out of election politics can be done with the overwhelming majority of day-to-day political issues.  There are some political issues that are not.  That brings me to the second strand of the proposed solution.  …..  It is that those parties who want to take sectarianism from politics come together and set up a joint committee. The task of that committee would be to negotiate a way forward on the basis of consensus.  Each party involved in these talks would have to agree to certain ethics.  Those might be (a) to vigorously look for solutions which are in the best interest of NI as a whole and not just one section of it (b) that no any elected member of any political party involved makes a public statement of their personal point of view (c) That no public statements are made about the work of that committee except jointly agreed statements. An agreement of this kind would require parties to discipline their members when making public statements on certain topics such as parades.

Most of the kind of issues that I am talking about here are likely to be cultural issues.  For example, I think it is entirely possible for such a joint committee to agree a way forward for the Irish Language.

The task of breaking the sectarian mould for either UCUNF or the SDLP does not end there. The parties still have to develop trust with those voters that they are asking to cross the sectarian divide. That leads me to the third strand.

An open Alliance with the UK Labour Party running along similar lines to the UCU-NF pact would not just give all NI voters the opportunity to vote Labour on Westminster issues.  That would swing the door wide open to would be protestant labour voters.

What would hold the SDLP back from such a course?  I think it is something to do with the view they take of Sinn Fein as their competition.  If they did pursue the path I have suggested, who is to say that they will not do Sinn Fein a lot of damage”

As readers will observe from this comment, there is a recognition from this proposal that a joint or multilateral party effort to take sectarianism out of Northern Ireland politics is more likely to succeed than if only one party is trying to achieve it.  Furthermore, I believe that a similar initiative will happen.  It is a question of  ‘when’, rather than ‘if’. 

I understand that this election is not likely to happen until their party conference in February.  In all sincerity, I hope that that SDLP membership ‘graspes the nettle’ and uses the time to develop this theme for its sake and for the sake of Northern Ireland.

Nicholson is No. 1. This is how I have decided upon my No. 2 vote

Tomorrow is polling day.  It is decision time for Northern Ireland people, including me.  My mind was made up, a long time ago, to vote for Jim Nicholson No. 1. What about second and further preference votes? 

At the outset, I want to make it clear that I am not interested in a party’s constitutional preference for Northern Ireland.  As a Conservative, I preach normal politics.  As far as I possibly can, I want to practice it too.   

When looking at a party’s policy, it is worth bearing in mind that what they say on certain things, has got nothing to do with the job of the euro MP.  For example, keeping the pound is a matter for the Westminster Government.  So also is whether or not to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.  When our MP is elected, they will all be expected to bat for Northern Ireland.  In practice and in most respects, that is what our existing three MPs have done.  Most of the policies which are concerned with looking after Northern Ireland’s interest are similar across all the parties.  That said, heads of policy are worth looking at to get a sense of the political direction of those parties.   

It is also worth bearing in mind that in terms of influencing politics in Europe, individual parties do not get seats on committees.  It is voting blocks which do.  The conservatives are cutting themselves off from the centre-right group (the EPP) after many years.  The reason for this is simple and it has to do with history.  The UK has no memory of being invaded.  Nearly all of the rest of Europe has.  Those countries are therefore emotionally driven towards greater union.  That is why the Conservatives are keen to form a new block – to act as a counterweight against federalism.    

The two parties with the nearest policies to the Conservatives are the DUP and the TUV.  The DUP say “Oppose the Lisbon Treaty, keep the pound.”  Similar things are said by Jim Allister, which I totally agree with.  As parties of the centre right, the DUP and the TUV would join the new group being formed by the Conservatives.    

The other parties are much further away from the Conservatives.  The starting point of both Sinn Fein and the SDLP is that they are both socialist with left-leaning politics.  The SDLP support the Lisbon treaty.  Sinn Fein, for reasons which I will not discuss here, opposes it.  Both of those parties would like to see the UK give up sterling for the euro.  So also would the Alliance Party.    

I have looked at the Green Party manifesto.  There are a couple of “whacky” things in their manifesto such as lowering the voting age.  I would also be concerned about some of the cost aspects in their policies but overall, their manifesto is reasonably pleasant and not inconsistent with many conservative policies.  The Northern Ireland Green manifesto says nothing about the Lisbon treaty.  I have looked at the manifesto of their British Counterparts and they do oppose the current Lisbon treaty.  They are silent on the question of sterling.    

The Alliance parties and the Green party preach vociferously against sectarianism.  That is obvious both from their manifestoes and what their candidates have said.   

The DUP, the TUV and Sinn Fein all fall down heavily in relation to sectarianism.  The DUP and Sinn Fein thrive upon the “sectarian headcount.”  Neither of these parties show a desire to tackle sectarianism.  The TUV and DUP differ over the St. Andrews agreement but are no different in nature from each other.  During the campaign, I have noticed from the remarks made both Jim Allister and Diane Dodds that their sectarian mindset is obvious and gross.    

The SDLP’s website pays “lip service” to being a party which is against sectarianism.  If you go back to some of the things John Hume used to say about Northern Ireland, he passionately wanted the two communities to be brought together.  When I have listened to other SDLP leaders like Mallon and Durkan I could not hear this being said from the heart.  During the campaign, Alban Maginnis has said that he wants to bring the two communities together.  It is hard for me to explain this but I felt that he did say it from the heart.   He said enough to convince me that he regards tackling sectarianism as more important than a united Ireland.    

Of the other candidates seeking election as Northern Ireland’s Euro MPs, only the DUP, TUV, Sinn Fein and the SDLP have any chance of being elected.  With respect to the Greens and the Alliance, their potential to attract No. 1 votes is not great enough this time around to influence me into giving them my second preference vote.  I will look at these parties again in future PR elections.   

That leaves me with a choice of 4 candidates for my No. 2 vote.  Sinn Fein has nothing to offer, as far as I am concerned.  I am therefore left with a choice between two sectarian candidates who are conservatives and a socialist candidate who is not.   

On the matter of sectarianism, I wish to say this.  It is Northern Ireland’s biggest political and social problem.  It is such a big problem that if you asked me what my choice would be – keep Northern Ireland in the union or eliminate sectarianism from Northern Ireland, I would chose the latter.  Unless politicians start making effective efforts to tackle sectarianism, it will be a perpetual curse on our society. 

Given all the circumstances, Alban McGinnis gets my No. 2 vote.

First issue for Northern Ireland voters in the Euro elections

Over the Easter period, I met people in my local parish who had still not heard about the Tory-UUP link up. 

I was hardly surprised.  Fermanagh is a very rural area.  Our local newspapers have only once mentioned the link up.  Even that would not have happened had I not mentioned it to them.  Of course, the development work carried out to jell the two parties together is still ongoing.  I believe that when the National Euro Campaign gets going next month, an important moment will arrive when it dawns on people in Northern Ireland that they really do have a new political choice.   

The first and most important message that voters should hear is that they do not have to choose between Unionism and Nationalism.  Our Candidate, Jim Nicholson, stands on the basis of Conservative party policy.  Voters in Northern Ireland do not yet have an official Labour Candidate to vote for.  However, you can still vote against them by voting for the party which is its prime opponent.  You also have in the SDLP a party which sits on the same benches as the Labour Party in the House of Commons and shares the Labour Party whip. If you have hitherto voted SDLP and are dissatisfied with the performance of the Labour Party on European issues, this is indeed an appropriate time to register a protest vote.  Consider, in particular, the European constitution.   

When the Labour Party campaigned in the 2007 election, we were promised a referendum on the European Constitution (as it was called then).  That vote should have taken place within a year after the 2005 general election.  The reason it did not take place was that France and the Netherlands had already voted against it in their referendum.  In truth, the Labour Party was mightily relieved to cancel the referendum.   

The history of the European Union shows that the political Eurocrats who drive the federalist superstate agenda will never take no for an answer.  Sure enough, up came another draft of the rejected constitution in the guise of the Treaty of Lisbon.  Cast your mind back to June 2007.  Tony Blair was still Prime Minister having his last big chin-wag in Brussels with Europe’s leaders.  He signed up to the new treaty just before handing over power to Gordon Brown who, of course, was fully consulted on what was going on.  Critics rightly pointed out that Gordon Brown should have taken office before the negotiations. 

This was a cowardly way of getting the “dirty linen” washed before Gordon Brown took office.  What about the referendum we were promised?    

Of course, this is the reason why Gordon Brown delayed taking office.  He does not want to be blamed sealing the deal on the Lisbon Treaty.  As to the referendum, that went “out the window”.  Having got through the General Election without the European constitution being an issue, the Labour Party no longer needed to promise a referendum, did it?  Blair signed us away without it.  Labour has since tried to argue that the European Constitution was not the same as the Lisbon Treaty.  In truth and in substance, more than 95% of it was the same.   

This has to go down as one of the most irresponsible, cynical and dishonest piece of hair-splitting, spinning, manifesto-promising and succession-timing manoeuvring in political history.  The Labour Party is now hoping that the voters have forgotten all of that.  The people of Northern Ireland can give Gordon Brown a “bloody nose” with a big No.1 vote for Jim Nicholson.

Sinn Fein plays tribal politics in the North and normal politics in the South

Sinn Fein held its Ard Fheis (party conference) on Saturday. In a candid display of weakness, its leader, Gerry Adams, appealed for partnership with the Irish Labour Party.

Sinn Fein seeks power on both sides of the border. Hitherto, it has been partially successful in Northern Ireland winning 26% of the overall vote at the 2007 assembly elections. In the Republic of Ireland, its poll rating has failed to move above its election position of 9% while other opposition parties have increased substantially in popularity. In making its appeal for co-operation with the Irish Labour Party, it flew the left-wing flag.

This follows unsuccessful electoral attempts by Sinn Fein to attract support away from the Irish Labour Party. It would seem that its call from pan left-wing unity will fall upon deaf ears.  Does this apparent arrest in Sinn Fein’s advance and their play on left wing politics in the South have any implications for Northern Ireland Politics?

I believe that there are for two reasons.  Firstly, it means they have failed to become a cross-border power.  That has implications for the survival of the SDLP.  At the last Republic of Ireland general election, it expected to win up to 12 seats in the Dáil Éireann (Irish House of Commons). Instead, it lost one and was reduced to four. Had they succeeded in their aims, they would have been knocking on the door for a place in a coalition government.  Being in Government on both sides of the border would have represented a milestone in its quest to achieve a United Ireland State.  If they had achieved a share of power of Government in the Republic as well as in the North, they would have “gianted” the SDLP with fatal consequences for the latter.  At the moment, it looks as though their chances of further advancement in the Republic are remote. 

Sinn Fein has never covered up the fact that it is a party of the left.  However, it has obfuscated when campaigning in Northern Ireland.  Whenever it campaigns in Northern Ireland, it is as a Republican party seeking a united Ireland and it consistently plays “equality” with a double meaning.   In the Republic, meanwhile, Sinn Fein has been raising its profile as a left-wing party in order to attract votes in the Republic.  Its appeal to the Irish Labour Party was yet another milestone on that continuum.

It makes no difference to voters in the Republic that Sinn Fein are republicans.  So are all the other parties.  The net result of this is that Sinn Fein is now playing “normal politics” in the South and “tribal politics” in the North.  This brings me to the second reason.  Can Sinn Fein really get away with a “horses for course” approach?

I don’t think so.   Sinn Fein’s opponents in Northern Ireland, particularly the Conservatives and UUP, will wish to increase the exposure on what they see as “two faced” politics.  Conservatives will not find it difficult to compare Sinn Fein to the UK Labour Party of the early eighties.  Perhaps opportunities really are opening up for normal politics.

The Labour Party to estabish itself in Northern Ireland

On February 18th, 2009, it was reporterd in the Belfast Telegraph that the Labour Party is organising itself as an official party in Northern Ireland.

The Spokesman representing the Labour Party in Northern Ireland, Mr. Boyd Black had previously given an indication that efforts were being made in this direction on the Politics Show on December 7th.  However, the position is not yet clear.  Mr. Black told the Belfast Telegraph that the party would have to wait to see what happens with the SDLP.

It looks very much as though the SDLP is a considerable obstacle to representation of the Labour Party in Northern Ireland.  However, the SDLP are being given a chance to take on that role. It is open for a left-wing Nationalist party, such as the SDLP to represent Labour in Northern Ireland, given the settled constitutional position of the Good Friday Agreement.  In order to do that, the SDLP will have to reach agreement with Labour that they will refrain from pursuit of any Nationalist agenda unless there is a referendum on the future of Northern Ireland.

Last month, I wrote a post entitled “a friendly letter to Mark Durkan” urging him to represent the Labour Party. I would suggest this is an opportunity for the SDLP. That may be easier said than done.  There are relationship problems between the parties of the left throughout the British Isles.  Jenny Muir, whose weblog is entitled “South Belfast Diary” has written some interesting articles explaining the problems of the left being represented in Northern Ireland.

It looks as though the Labour Party will limit the amount of time they give to the SDLP to make up its mind. Mr. Black has suggested that they would like to contest the local government elections in 2001.

He went on to say

“This is a great opportunity to move away from the old sectarian politics that we have so long been used to and engage in the real political debate that matters to all in our community.”

On this occasion, we conservatives wish our biggest enemy success in establishing themselves as the largest party of the left in Northern Ireland.

Equality has two meanings in Northern Ireland politics. Time to wake up

“Equality” is a word which you would think is very simple to understand.  Taken right next to its mathematical definition, it means that when you have equality, two or more sides, people or parts are the same or amount to the same.  That is where most of us would take the definition.  Over the centuries philosophers, scientists and politicians have played around with it but the word still retains its familiar singular meaning.

Fairness more or less means “just”.  Unlike equality, fairness is not a word of exactitude.  It means different things to different people.  In fact, the different concepts of fairness are at the heart of the various ideologies practised by the political parties today.

There is no creed within the Conservative movement which defines fairness exactly but there are threads in Conservative politics from which you can take core principles.  Those core principles which relate to fairness, I would loosely define them as follows:

•       that enterprise is rewarded and that people, as far as possible, are allowed to retain their wealth.

•       The weakest and most disadvantaged should be helped and protected.  Where possible help should be given to them enable them to gain independence

•       All our children should have the best possible start in life that can be achieved for them.

By applying those bullet points, you get a flavour for the Conservative view of fairness.  It can never apply exactly in practice.  For one thing, polices will change according to the wealth of a nation and the state of the economy.  However, there are clear examples of how Conservative views of fairness have been applied in practice.   In 1979, when the Conservatives came to power, the parties had very different notions of what was a fair tax.  The top rate of income tax then was 83% with an extra 15% added for investment income surcharge tax.  The Conservatives reduced the tax rate immediately on taking office to 60% and later to 40%.  Since then, that rate of tax has been accepted by the Labour party as being appropriate.

Why isn’t equality fair?  To some strands of politics, such as communism and extreme left wing socialism, it is.  In practice, that means re-distribution of wealth and control of the means of acquisition, production and supply.  We know from our history that the only way to make it work properly is to have a totalitarian government.  It does not work properly even then because the enforcement of the system results in oppression.  Oppression results in inhumanity, low productivity and impoverishment and eventually becomes unacceptable. 

Watered down equality in politics has also failed because it de-incentivises.  Going back to the situation in 1979, Labour never revived the old tax rates because they knew that we would lose our wealth creators abroad.  Today, the Labour party is not as left wing as it used to be but the burden of taxation has risen under their administration and they have spent all that they have raised in tax.   

Look now to the politics of Northern Ireland and there you have confusion.  Equality here means something else.  Before 1972, there were was oppression towards one section of the community, hence the civil rights campaign.  The Good Friday agreement cemented the principles of equality and parity of esteem.  Enshrined in Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act is the principle of equality to be applied throughout government administration and practice.

Abuses of civil rights have long since ceased to be a problem of politics in Northern Ireland.  If there are any problems, it is for clients and their lawyers, not politicians.  We have had Fair Employment Legislation and the Human Rights Act.

Most of Northern Ireland’s voters, particularly in the Catholic community, do not seem to have noticed that Sinn Fein is an extreme left wing party.  The SDLP are a socialist party which has recently drifted further to the left, in my opinion.  The word “equality” is now being over-egged in politics, particularly by those two nationalist parties.  Unfortunately, Catholics listening to the word “equality” are reminded of past oppression – yet Sinn Fein and the SDLP are now really shouting their own ideology.  Moreover, they have done nothing to clear this confusion.  Why would they?  That would not suit them.  They don’t want normal politics.

Equality should only have one meaning in politics.  Unfortunately, in Northern Ireland, it has two.   It is time for people in Northern Ireland to wake up to that fact.