David Cameron has played a blinder to get to this position

At the General Election, the Conservatives registered a count of 307 seats.   Throughout 2009, it looked as though we would win an overall majority.   Having noted the performance of UKIP, I am now convinced that what cost the Conservatives that overall majority was in large part connected with the withdrawal of the proposal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.  UKIP had always said that they would have supported the Conservatives at the General Election if they had maintained the policy.

There are some Conservatives (Lord Tebbit was one of them) who wanted the Conservatives to continue with the policy on holding a referendum.  They may have won an election outright but they would have been taking a much bigger risk with the National Interest and the party’s interest further down the line.  A referendum on the Lisbon treaty post ratification would have been a referendum on membership of the Euro.  The ultimate scenario could have spelt disaster.   Britain might have voted itself out of Europe and the Conservative Party might have fatally torn itself apart.

Looking at Conservative Policy and politics over the last four years, it is quite obvious that in appreciating the scale of the task for getting back to power, the Conservatives were planning the scenario of a hung parliament, just as they were looking at every alternative to avoid it.  Competing aggressively for the centre ground of politics was one part of the strategy.  Their green policy was not just an ethical consideration of the Environment.  Their libertarian approach to politics was not merely shaped by philosophy.  Much of the drive behind these policies was a determination to fight the ground of the Liberal Democrats.  In large part, this strategy succeeded.  There was little opportunity for the Lib Dems to advance until the TV debate during the election campaign. 

Consider also the Conservative strategy for Scotland.  The Conservatives did not win any new seats in Scotland.  However, they did buy political kudos from the Scottish Nationalists by agreeing to allow them to govern at the Scottish Assembly.  The Scottish Nationalists have six MPs.  They could, passively or actively, play a crucial part in the negotiations for a new Government in the next few days. 

Consider also the Conservative approach to Northern Ireland.  The Conservatives had hoped that the link up with the UUP would have delivered them extra seats.  Alas, by the beginning of the year, once it became obvious that the link up with the UUP was not going to deliver, the Conservatives got their hands dirty with the DUP, hence the Hatfield House talks and the Fermanagh South Tyrone deal.  The latter gamble did not pay off.  Whilst I did not agree with the deal, it was understandable.  We can at least say that it was out of Character for our leadership to agree that.  The hung parliament spectre was the driving force behind it.  In a future post, I will be setting out my proposal as to how the Conservatives in Northern Ireland should respond to the problem left behind by that deal.

Recently, it was reported that the Conservatives were promising an extra £200 million following further talks with the DUP.  That is entirely consistent with a stratagem to deal with the hung Parliament problem.  Unlike deals on representation and candidates, I do not consider that kind of deal to be pernicious.  The Government has to do what is best for the Country as a whole.  However, there are others who will criticise such a deal as pandering to sectarianism.  Indeed, Lord Ashdown yesterday was asking the question as to whether David Cameron was going to do a deal with “the Orangemen.”  

Lord Ashdown’s comments betray a fear within the Liberal Democrat camp that their hand might not quite be strong enough to push for for an unconditional committment to their holy grail of proportional representation in Parliamentary Elections. 

With the option of governing on the basis of a minority government, the Conservatives, just as they threw away the referendum policy on Europe, have to consider the National interest in their approach to forming a Government.  The Country has a debt mountain to deal with.  We have a war in Afghanistan.  The Country needs the strongest possible Government.  It is absolutely right that the Conservatives should give priority to trying to make a deal with the Liberal Democrats.  

Yesterday, David Cameron set out the Conservative position.  He made a momentous speech setting out bullet point terms for the Lib Dems joining in partnership.  He outlined the issues on which there would not be negotiation, such as the policy on immigration.  In proposing an all party committee on electoral reform, with a promise to implement legislation on the basis of its recommendations, David Cameron has effectively made it almost impossible for the Lib Dems to become involved in a grand coalition with Gordon Brown.  Indeed, I proposed in one of my recent posts that David Cameron should make some sort of offer on elections for precisely that reason.  David Cameron has now shot Gordon Brown’s Fox. 

Taking together everything that has happened, David Cameron has played a blinder for the Conservatives since the moment he became our leader.  Yes, he makes mistakes but he always manages to adjust very quickly.  It is hard not to look at his performance with a certain amount of awe.  He may yet turn out to be one of Britain’s greatest ever politicians.

Cameron grills Brown on electoral reform and gets him to admit he doesn’t favour it

For those of you who are used to visiting this website to look for my latest post, I apologise for not putting one out this morning.  It was one of those situations where business commitments gave me no time to write.

This afternoon, on my way back from Belfast, I listened to Prime Minister’s question time.  I love listening to it live. David Cameron is now at the top of his game as a political “sharpshooter”. In his exchanges with Gordon Brown, he comes out on top almost every time.

Before the first question, there was plenty of anticipation, following the results of the elections over the last few days.  The election results and the cabinet crisis over the weekend were in the background but David Cameron had another matter on his mind. Cameron would have been concerned by recent overtures by Gordon Brown about electoral reform. He decided to cross-examine the Prime Minister on the subject.

David Cameron always uses question time carefully.  It is a perfect stage on which to build hostages to fortune and set traps for political battles to come.  Last week, David Cameron asked Gordon Brown if Alastair Darling would be in his cabinet next week.  It had previously been leaked that Brown wanted to remove Darling.  Darling has kept his post but at the cost of his reputation as the custodian of the nation’s finances being severely diminished after the revelation that he claimed on the expenses for service charge on a flat that he let to tenants. 

This week, question time was about the voting system for elections to Parliament which Gordon Brown has put electoral reform onto the political agenda.  Now why would Gordon Brown want to do that?  After all, the system has just won them three elections.   Nevertheless, it prompted David Cameron to put questions about the proposals to the Prime Minister.  In the introduction to his question, David Cameron made it clear why he was against changes to the “first past the post” system for Westminster elections.  The present system enables an MP to be the unique representative of his constituency and provides a connection between Parliament and localities. 

Cameron asked Gordon Brown for his view.  Initially, Brown tried to avoid the question, stating that this discussion would be announced later (typical Brown self-righteousness).  David Cameron then highlighted fact that the BNP, a fascist race-hate party, had benefited from the system.  Brown presumably thought Cameron was going to use this as launch pad to attack labour’s performance in government for setting up the BNP for their success.  Brown then expressed his disgust towards these “bigots” and “racists” but Cameron persisted with his line of questioning and Brown had to admit that he personally was against changing the “first past the post” system. When he said that he had “no plans” to change the system, Cameron pressed further and asked him if he was considering a referendum.

Brown kept repeating that he had “no plans.” 

I have pasted details of this exchange from the BBC’s website below.  It was an important one, as it happens.  It sort of reveals that Labour is looking at damage limitation options.  David Cameron was absolutely right grill Gordon Brown and pin him down on this issue.  He now has Brown where he wants him -on the side of keeping the present system.

 

1206 David Cameron is met with cheers and laughter as he tells Mr Brown “how pleased” he is “to see the prime minister in his place” – a reference to Mr Brown’s leadership troubles. He says the Tories are against changing the electoral system and suggests it is because Labour got 15% of the vote in the Euro elections 1207 Mr Brown is backed by Labour MPs as he says finally the Tories have asked a question about policy. Mr Cameron almost misses his second question as the Speaker calls another MP to ask a question before correcting himself and calling the Conservative leader again.  1208 Mr Brown says he’ll answer questions about electoral reform in his statement later – Mr Cameron says it’s too late as he’s already briefed the press. The discussion moves to the BNP – which won two MEP seats this week – Mr Cameron says that is an argument against proportional representation for Westminster. Mr Brown attacks the BNP and says he has never supported proportional representation as a policy.  1210 Mr Brown says there are no plans to change the voting system before the next general election – he says there’s an interest “throughout the country” on the issue of electoral reform. He accuses the Tory leader of “self interest” in the way he is approaching policy discussion. Mr Cameron laughs – as do many Tory MPs. Speaker Michael Martin steps in to restore order.  1211 Mr Cameron says remarks like that make him a “figure of ridicule” – he says there’s not been “a squeak” about electoral reform for 12 years, now all of a sudden he’s interested.  1213 Mr Cameron says Mr Brown’s statement that he had “no plans” should be interpreted as meaning he is thinking of having a referendum. He demands a stronger commitment. Mr Brown says he said “no plans” and he means “no plans”. The Tories are loudly supporting Mr Cameron who says the PM has “no democratic legitimacy” and says he is trying to “fix the rules of the election”.  1214 Mr Brown turns fire back on the Tories with another reference to alleged Tory spending cuts. He says Mr Cameron needs to be “honest with the country” – there is some shouting from Labour MPs behind him.  1215 Mr Cameron calls the government “weak, divided and incompetent” – a charge Tony Blair in opposition used to level at John Major. Mr Brown is back onto the subject of public spending cuts. It’s very rowdy in the chamber. Michael Martin, in his penultimate PMQs, admonishes Tory MP Andrew Robathan and tells him he’s at risk of being removed.