Margaret Thatcher was absolutely right

It is 20 years since Margaret Thatcher was removed from power in a leadership challenge instigated by Michael Heseltine and others.  It was a time when the Conservatives lost their nerve, having seen opinion poll ratings fall.  The issue which divided Conservatives, at the time, was the proposed single European currency.  Her successor, John Major was unable to unite the two wings of the Conservative Party despite winning the 1992 election.  The combined effect of the EMS crisis of 1992 and the splits in the Conservative Party over Europe led to a crushing defeat by New Labour in the 1997 election. 

Writing in the Daily Telegraph
Peter Oborne revisits the warnings that Margaret gave during her term of office and which were recorded in her autobiography, first published in 1993. 

“Today, Margaret Thatcher’s autobiography, first published in 1993, reads like a prophecy. It shows how deeply and with what extraordinary wisdom she had examined Delors’ proposals for the single currency. Her overriding objection was not ill-considered or xenophobic, as subsequent critics have repeatedly claimed.”

“They were economic. Right back in 1990, Mrs Thatcher foresaw with painful clarity the devastation it was bound to cause. Her autobiography records how she warned John Major, her euro-friendly chancellor of the exchequer, that the single currency could not accommodate both industrial powerhouses such as Germany and smaller countries such as Greece. Germany, forecast Thatcher, would be phobic about inflation, while the euro would prove fatal to the poorer countries because it would “devastate their inefficient economies

“It is as if, all those years ago, the British prime minister possessed a crystal ball that enabled her to foresee the catastrophic events of the past year or so in Ireland, Greece and Portugal. Indeed, it is one of the tragedies of European history that the world chose not to believe her. President Mitterrand of France and Chancellor Kohl of Germany dismissed her words of caution. And when Mrs Thatcher was driven from

office in 1990, a crucial voice was lost, and a new consensus started to form in Britain in favour of the euro.”

Oborne also pays tribute to William Hague and Ian Duncan Smith, who maintained support for Mrs. Thatcher’s policy during a period of intense unpopularity for the Conservatives.

Margaret Thatcher was hardly a popular figure in the Republic of Ireland.  In the 1980s, she was seen as an obstacle to Ireland’s interests.  I wonder how many now wished that their politicians had paid more heed to her warnings.

Conservatives must explain Europe until they are ‘blue in the face’

When I saw the headline in the Times this morning which said “Cameron on brink of dropping referendum promise over Lisbon treaty,” I was annoyed.  Not at David Cameron, I hasten to add, but the journalist who wrote it.  Why? Because it is misleading.  Worse still is a headline in the Belfast Telegraph indicating that Cameron has signalled a U – turn.

Why is it misleading?  Because it gives the clear impression that after the Treaty is ratified by all European states, you can simply turn the clock back and de-construct it with a referendum. 

Once all European States have ratified the Treaty, it becomes part of European Law.  Those new elements of European Law can not be separated from all the other European law.  Therefore, when David Cameron says that the Conservatives will re-negotiate those parts of European Law which are not acceptable, that is entirely consistent with their previous policy.  It is a responsible policy.  It is advancing Britain’s best interests. 

Putting this into political context, those who believe that having a referendum before the Treaty is ratified can be the same thing as having a referendum after it is ratified are deluding themselves. 

The latter would be tantamount to a referendum on EU membership in its entirety.  UKIP will now accuse the Conservatives of “reneging on their promise.”  Those who are informed will know this is a dishonest argument.  UKIP’s policy is totally impractical and unworkable in practice.  Conservatives need to get that message across, very clearly, and must keep explaining that point until they are ‘blue in the face’

Party political broadcast: Cameron hammers home his plan on expenses

This is the latest Conservatives election broadcast released on Friday.

Over the weekend, opinion polls indicated a swing away to the minor parties on Europe.  UKIP seem to be the biggest beneficiary from the expenses scandal.

According to UK Polling report, there is a new poll in the Telegraph (which I cant find online) showing Conservatives 39%, Labour 23% and Lib Dems 19%. For Europe, the same pollster gives Conservatives 26%, Labour 21%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dems 14%, BNP 7%.   Less than two weeks ago, the Conservatives were set to gain seats in Europe. Now they are in danger of losing some of them.

The Conservative project in Northern Ireland will eventually prevail

In his article in the Sunday Times today, Liam Clarke discusses the position of Lady Sylvia Hermon and her relationship with Sir Reg and the Ulster Unionists.   

Liam Clarke is a great reporter but I have been wondering about his analysis. If you look at what he has said over the months since the Tory-UUP link up, he has not given the relationship any prospect of success.  The big flaw in his reporting, including today’s column, is that he has never discussed the long term aspects.    

The reality about Lady Sylvia Hermon is that the substance of her political position is not news.  The only thing that is different is the timing of her announcement as to her intentions.   

I am one of those who believe that it does not matter if the Conservative – UUP partnership does not have a Westminster seat after the next general election.  As for Jim Nicholson, I don’t believe he will lose either.  2004 was his lowest point.  All the indications are that he will substantially cut into the DUP’s share of the vote.    

In my post yesterday, I highlighted what I believed could be the start of a haemorrhage of DUP support away from Diane Dodds to Jim Allister.  Even before the DUP expenses scandal, it had been reported that from a private survey in April that Jim Allister was likely to receive at least 48,000 of the first preference vote.    

It is extremely unlikely that Diane Dodds will not be elected on the first count.  If Jim Allister is the first of the Unionist candidates to be eliminated, my strong hunch is that most of Allister’s second preference vote will go to Nicholson, which makes it more likely than not that Nicholson will be the first Unionist MEP to be elected.    

I suggest that it is most likely that Dodds and the DUP will be biting their nails in the subsequent counts, hoping that Alban Maginnis does not pull up sufficiently to overtake her.  In this scenario, who is the bigger loser?   

Even if Dodds manages to get elected on the last count, the answer is obvious to me.  What of the Conservative – UUP link if the elections were to turn out badly?   

It would be ridiculous to abandon the project just because parliamentary and/or the Euro elections did not go our way.  Too much has been invested.  A lot of work has been done which is nowhere near completion.  Assuming the relationship continues after the next general election, it will become a strong well-oiled machine.  For election purposes, the contract with the UUP technically only runs until the general election.  The reality is that this is a very long-term project.   I fully expect us to be fighting the next Assembly elections with the UUP. 

Does Liam Clarke really think that in the worst euro and parliamentary scenario, David Cameron will abandon the Northern Ireland project?  If he does, it shows how little he has listened to the likes of Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, Owen Paterson.

The Conservative Party is committed to pouring resources into Northern Ireland to advance conservativism.  Mr. Paterson has repeated over an over that this is a long term project.  Even if we have no election success in the next two years, the Conservative project in Northern Ireland will eventually prevail.

Cameron must probe all Conservative Euro MPs urgently

Today, Peter and Irish Robinson will be squirming in front of their copy of the Belfast Telegraph.    

All the attention will be on them for the rest of the day.  I need not say any more about that story.   

It made me think. Is there anything left?  What about the Euro MPs. If a similar system for expenses for Euro MPs was similar to that of the House of Commons, I would be in no doubt that we would see dubious claims all over Europe.   

As I researched the net, lo and behold, I stumbled upon this most interesting report in the Times last year.  The report says it all.  Somebody knows something quite explosive that is not yet in the public domain.  

David Cameron should, right now, be asking all of the existing Conservative MEPs to disclose, immediately, anything they know which could embarrass the party.  If they are not honest in their response, there is nothing further that can be done for the time being.  However, having carried out that exercise, he will have acquired the sharpest of axes.   

When the detailed news eventually hits the headlines (which I believe it will) he will be able to use it quickly and cleanly.  He would not then be blamed for letting them become elected.

Conservative and Unionist first election broadcast

This video was broadcast across Northern Ireland last night.  There has already been many comments made about the broadcast.   You can find most of them on this link to Slugger.

It is, of course, easy to be an armchair critic when it comes to analysis of what politicians say but politics is a difference science when it comes to broadcasting.  Many people watching it will be coming to understand, perhaps for the first time, that there is a real partnership between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists.  

The broadcast needed to include David Cameron and Jim Nicholson in the right measure.  I felt that the balance was just about right.  The image of Nicholson was of a man who bats for the Northern Ireland farmers.  I felt they projected that very well.  It was a good start.

Is Diane Dodds scared of a TV debate with the two Jims?

Having pulverised the DUP two weeks ago over its war with the Media, Liam Clarke, writing for the Sunday Times predicts that Diane Dodds will emerge as the Unionist with the largest number of votes.   He also suggests that Jim Nicholson and Alban Maguinness of the SDLP will be scrapping for the third Euro seat.   

Since the announcement of the Conservative-UUP link-up, last November, Liam Clarke has made very few references to it.  In his article, he refers to the Alliance as U.C.U.N.F. instead of the campaigning name which will appear on posters and literature.  Perhaps that will change, now that the first posters are out on the streets.  

At the moment, I don’t blame Liam Clarke for thinking that.  Publicly, the CU alliance has not appeared much on the radar so far.  A campaign will change all of that.  Much will depend on its impact in the weeks ahead.  The time to make predictions will be in the last week in May.   

Perhaps the most interesting part of Clarke’s report is that Diane Dodds has refused to take part in a television question session with Jim Allister and Jim Nicholson, even though she is quite happy to have one alongside Barbara de brun.  There is something very odd here.  Is she really scared of being out-debated by the two Jims?

Nicholson gives the CUs a cutting edge

Very soon, the poles, fences, windows and walls of Northern Ireland will be filled with posters.  Here is Jim Nicholson’s poster.  

 We are the party with the best European Policies for Britain and Northern Ireland.   The fact that we have the candidate with the best teeth is incidental.

DUP Campaign messages are a sham

The opening excahnges of the Euro elections have began.  The DUP’s central message has been plain from the start “Don’t let Sinn Fein top the poll.”  

We know how disingenuous this message is but the DUP have repeated it since I recorded it in a previous post.  They have entered this race without a sitting MEP.  They might have ensured that a unionist would top the poll if they had not entered the race.  There is no chance of them topping the poll and they know it.  Their real objective is to destroy Jim Allister and the TUV.

They have now put forward another message aimed at Jim Nicholson.  The message is  “Let’s not have unionists attacking each other.”

At the launch of the election campaign, Dianna Dodds said this

“We need to keep our focus on defeating republicanism in this election and not allow it to become a unionist slanging match as some want,”   

Yesterday, Sammy Wilson in a response to remarks by Sir Reg Empey said this

“It is pathetic that Reg Empey chose to devote his speech to unfounded attacks on fellow unionists.”  [Source:  Belfast Newsletter]  

The DUP want to portray the Conservatives / UUP as being somehow disloyal (to unionism), as if all unionist parties should stick together.  Once again, the message is disingenuous.  The DUP are a sectarian party. The only parties that they can take votes from are the other unionist parties.  Sammy Wilson reiterated his party’s desire to retain sectarianism last December after the Conservative-UUP link up was announced.  In response to the stated intentions of Conservative and UUP leaders that thy were seeking to attract catholic voters, he said “you have to take sides.” 

The DUP are fair game for the CUs.   Their messages are a sham.  The way to help voters see them for what they really are is to vigorously attack the DUP.

Lady Sylvia Hermon: The UUP leadership must act now

It is now more than 5 months since the Conseravtive and Ulster Unionist link up was agreed – yet still there has been no sign that Lady Sylvia Hermon has made a decision as to whether or not to support her party’s commitment.  

As Sir Reg Empey made clear over the weekend, the agreement does not apply to the current parliament.  She is entitled to continue her work as an Ulster Unionist MP until the next General Election.  

Lady Sylvia Hermon

Lady Hermon’s performance as an MP suggests that her politics are on the left.  If this is true, then her political views are almost certainly incompatible with accepting the Conservative whip.  Indeed, before the link-up, she made her unhappiness about it very clear.  In the Newsletter of 14th October 2008, Liam Clarke wrote

“Lady Sylvia Hermon, the UUP’s sole MP, has made it crystal clear that she will neither take the Tory whip nor stand aside for another candidate.”

On the evidence of her silence, she does not seem to have changed her position.  We have now reached the point where the candidates for the constituencies are about to be selected.  However, the imminence of the Euro election makes the need to know her position even more pressing.  

If she has already privately declared her position to the UUP leadership and this is unfavourable, there may have been a mutual agreement not to publicise it until after the Euro elections.  If that is the case, then honour would be preserved but I can not see how this problem can stay out of the Euro campaign. 

If Lady Hermon is deliberately withholding declaring her position, then the UUP ought to provide her with an ultimatum to do so within the next week or so.  The terms of the ultimatum should be that if she fails to state her position before it expires, she forfeits her right to be selected as the candidate for North Down.

The signs are that the momentum on this question is gathering within the media.  On the Politics Show yesterday, Jim Fitzpatrick pressed Sir Reg Empey about it.  Today, there is a leading article on the matter in the Belfast Telegraph.   

Notwithstanding the recent loss of her husband, Lady Hermon has had more than enough time to make her decision.  Whether or not she has already declared her position, it needs to be made public very quickly.  If it is not, the uncertainty will be exploited by our political opponents in the Euro campaign and the Media will increasingly ask questions.  Lady Hermon must not be allowed to control the timing of a negative announcement.  The UUP leadership must act now.