Welcome Fianna Fail

Monday was an extraordinary day for Northern Ireland politics.  Firstly, there was the opinion poll, reported in the Belfast Telegraph showing the Martin McGuinness was Northern Ireland’s most popular politician.

Later, we had the announcement, confirmed today, that Fianna Fail had its first elected representative in Northern Ireland in Gerry McHugh, MLA.

Gerry McHugh was, until 2007, a member of Sinn Fein.  He left Sinn Fein in November 2007 citing “lack of democracy” in his own party as the reason for his departure.  According to a BBC report, he also said this

“I feel the direction Sinn Fein is taking is more about appeasement of the British government and administrating British rule in Ireland rather than working towards the end of British occupation.”

On Slugger December 7, 2007, he is also reported as having said this

“Assembly structures support this – at both committee and plenary level unionists have majority control.  What was agreed at St Andrews cannot be delivered without unionist approval.”

Further along, the post also said

‘Mr McHugh said Sinn Féin’s decision to endorse policing in the north was a “factor” in his decision.

“I have no difficulties with the idea of civil policing but I have a difficulty with the excessive amounts of MI5 and military spooks operating in the six counties,” he said.

So it appeared at the time that he was against the St. Andrews Agreement and in particular, Sinn Fein’s acceptance of the PSNI as Northern Ireland’s official police.  He appeared to be slightly more hard-line than Sinn Fein officially was.

The Fianna Fail Party and Bertie Ahern, in particular, gave unconditional support to St. Andrews.

So already, Fianna Fail have accepted a “hard liner” into their ranks and one who is averse to ‘control freakery’.  That is most interesting.  In a sense, it is Sinn Fein’s ability to keep discipline with its membership that has been one of the hallmarks of its success.  One wonders how Mr. McHugh will react when Fianna Fail start to put their own restrictions on his political conduct. 

McHugh also needs to ‘get real’ in relation to the ‘spooks.’  Were it not for those excellent brave people doing field intelligence work, we would by now have a tradgedy on our hands beginning with a dead police officer in Garrison.

It is going to be fascinating to see how Sinn Fein reacts.  Will this make it more or less likely that Martin McGuiness will break the Executive if the DUP do not deliver a date for P & J by Christmas?  Let the drama begin.

It is very hard, at this stage, to predict the impact of Fianna Fail onto the Northern Ireland Political scene.  Could their success depend upon how many big names defect from Sinn Fein and the SDLP?   Could this mark the death of the SDLP?  Could their entry into politics split the Nationalist vote and kill Martin McGuinnness’s dream of becoming first minister?

f they attract no more than a token number of big names, Fianna Fail might begin with similar difficulties to the ones facing the Conservatives in the late 1980s.  Fermanagh could become to Northern Ireland Fianna Fail what North Down eventually became to Northern Ireland Conservatives but their footholds might remain only that unless Fianna Fail’s central party invests substantial resources into their campaigning, as the Conservatives have recently began to do. 

They have one possible problem which the Conservatives do not have.  They are operating politics across a state boundary.  That causes difficulties as policy in one state may not be appropriate for the other.  On the other hand, Fianna Fail, as a populist party with no particular ideology may be the best Irish party suited to cross-border “horses for courses” politics.  On that particular aspect, they have a serious edge over Sinn Fein who are wedded rigidly to the left of the political spectrum.   

In time, Fianna Fail could become serious political opponents of our party but that is for the future. 

Those are my observations.  The truth is, I have absolutely no idea how what the future holds for Fianna Fail in Northern Ireland.  Today, meanwhile,  is a day for goodwill.   The Conservative Party will never allow this event to get in the way of the friendships which Britain has developed with the Republic of Ireland as a neighbouring state. 

We welcome the arrival of Fianna Fail into Northern Ireland politics.  We hope that their presence in the Northern Ireland political arena will create new opportunities to do political business with them.   We hope that there will be opportunities for both of our respective parties to implement great joint political initiatives which will enhance the lives of the people of Northern Ireland.

A fast track for ending sectarian politics – the triple Alliance

Last night, I enjoyed watching the results of the Euro Elections coming in.   It was a good night for the centre-right across Europe.  

Perhaps that last sentence would be meaningless to most people.  In years to come, politics will have moved on and what happens with political parties all over Europe will matter, whether we like it or not.  In this context, this is not a bad time to wheel out an idea that formed just after the Conservatives negotiated their agreement with the UUP. 

The idea originated after I thought about the potential alliance between Fianna Fáil and the  SDLP .  

When I first heard (some years ago) that the SDLP and Fianna Fail were negotiating a political alliance, I pondered about whether this would be a good or a bad thing.  I originally thought that anything which would weaken Sinn Fein was a good thing.  As my thoughts developed, and believing that Fianna Fáil  was a conservative party, I thought it was a bad thing.  The SDLP is a party of the socialist left.  It seemed to be like “trying to put a square peg into a round hole”

I re-considered that question after a friend of mine insisted that Fianna Fáil is a party of the left.   I checked again.  Looking at the Fianna Fáil website, it is obviously a Republican party.  It also states that it has a commitment to the historic principles of European republican philosophy, namely liberty, equality and fraternity.  On Wikepedia, it is stated that the party is Liberal Conservative.  In Europe, it is a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe.  It seems to be more like a Lib Dem Party.  Whether Lib dem or liberal Conservative, the SDLP are far more fixed on the socialist wing of political philosophy.  Somehow, I still dont think those two parties would make very comfortable political bedfellows.  Let us suppose, however, that they were able to.

The problem with such a set up is that it would be a Nationalist alliance, unable to attract voters from the Protestant community except in a protest vote.  They might be able to make inroads into the Sinn Fein vote.  Unfortunately, I still do not think it would help towards establishing normal politics.   

The recession has meant that the SDLP and Fianna Fáil have postponed their alliance indefinitely.  I do not know if that project will ever re-surface.  It may be better for both parties if it did not.  If the SDLP wants to be a cross- community party, it needs the British Labour Party.  The problem with that is that it inhibits its Nationalist identity that it would want to keep.  How can it resolve that?

I would suggest that the SDLP enters into a triple alliance with the Labour Party in Britain and the Labour Party in the Republic of Ireland to promote a pan-British Isles socialist agenda.  Whichever way you cut it, Northern Ireland has business and cultural intimacy with both Britain and the Republic of Ireland.  This would be a way of promoting socialism in Northern Ireland with an Irish element but without diminishing the British link.  Such a relationship may be one which both Irish and British socialists could buy into. 

Such a relationship would actually achieve more than just setting right the SDLP.   Whichever way you cut it, Northern Ireland has a business and cultural intimacy with both Britain and the Republic of Ireland.  It would add a new exciting dimension to cross-border politics.  This leads me to the idea that I had.

In the next few years, we will get an idea of the extent to which the Conservatives and the UUP have been successful attracting Catholic voters who have conservative values.  The means by which this ought to be achieved may be difficult for unionists to accept.  I am also concerned that unionists in Northern Ireland may not find it easy to think in terms of conservativism without getting away from their fixation on the Union.  There is also a possibility that no matter how many “olive branches” are made towards the Catholic community, the CU brand is too toxic to ever be attractive to Catholics who are naturally conservative.  Is there a faster route to breaking down sectarian politics?

I think there is but readers of this post – at least in 2009 – may prefer to “shoot down in flames” the idea.  Alternatively, the reader who likes “thinking outside the box,” might warm to it.  It has many advantages but it would be extremely difficult to sell because it requires unionists in Northern Ireland to make a quantum leap in their political thinking. 

That is why I was almost afraid to talk about the idea until now.   A couple of days ago, I read a post written by Horseman, in response to one of mine in relation to a CU candidate.  Horseman was not correct in assuming that UCUNF was formed in order to co-opt Catholics into Unionism.  It was formed to promote conservativism in Northern Ireland.  However, if the UCUNF project is to be successful, it requires that sectarian politics is brought to an end.  I do accept what some unionists have told me which is that the preservation of the Union is likely to be a by-product of such an achievement. 

I agree with Horseman’s analysis that more Irishness would strengthen the union.  This is entirely consistent with the Conservative core aim, which is to improve the well-being of Northern Irish people.  That includes embracing cultural diversity.

Looking to the future, I believe that more intimacy is needed for the economic and cultural well-being of Northern Ireland.  That means, particularly, freeing up obstacles to cross-border trade, joint planning capital projects, shared public services, shared development or any other public concern which could make efficient use of the land border.

Furthering Northern Ireland’s interest on the other side of the border would have added dynamism if there was a political party on the other side to promote Northern Ireland’s interest.  In the scenario that I have already provided, the left achieves this by through a triple alliance of the three labour parties.  The conservatives and the UUP could also achieve that by aligning with Fine Gael.  In practice, that would mean, effectively, Fine Gael joining the New Force.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fine Gael is a conservative party, although it calls itself a party of the “progressive centre.”  It is a member of the centre right EPP.  With the Conservatives set to leave the EPP, it will now be in a slightly different political position in Europe.  In Ireland, however, there is no reason why Fine Gael should not be invited to set up in Northern Ireland and join a conservative triple alliance.  Would Northern Irish people want this?

I have no doubt that they would.  However, I dont think many unionists are anywhere near being ready for this kind of politics.  Most of them, including some of their politicians, have a mindset which leads them cynically to conclude that ideas involving anything to do with the Republic of Ireland are a trojan horse for bringing about a united Ireland.   We are perhaps 10 years or so away from an idea like this being taken seriously, unless the Labour Party and the SDLP get there first.

A friendly letter to Mark Durkan, SDLP leader

On Saturday 24^th January, Mark Durkan, SDLP leader, addressed his party faithful at their annual conference.  After watching his speech, I “wrote a letter” to him. Will he read it?  Would he ever consider or has he already thought about what I suggest?  We shall see.

 

Dear Mark,

 

All the people I have met, that have had dealings with you, have never hesitated to tell me that you are a gentleman and a decent man.  I have no doubt that is absolutely true.  However, you are in charge of a political party which badly needs some direction and leadership.  Unfortunately, when you gave your speech on Saturday, you did not provide that.

 

Just over a year ago, when your party had its previous conference, you looked set to join Fianna Fáil in a newly rebranded all-Ireland nationalist party.  Fianna Fail’s plan to join up with your party is all but dead and the SDLP now looks like a “rudderless ship”.

 

I believe that joining Fianna Fáil would have been a serious mistake.  In time to come, you may be glad that the merger did not happen.  After all, Fianna Fáil is very much a conservative party.  Your party is a socialist party.  If you had got together, you would have looked like “chalk and cheese”.  Yes, you might have eventually outmuscled Sinn Féin but you were only going to be competing for Catholic votes.  The only success you could ever have achieved would have been to perpetuate tribal politics.

 

You see, tribal politics is bad for Northern Ireland.  The hidden cost to the taxpayer runs into billions and leaves little inspiration for a society to ever be at ease with itself.  You may also wish to reflect on remarks made years ago by your former leader, John Hume, who indicated that Ireland could never be united until Northern Ireland was united with itself.  Do you not think that it should be an objective of your party to help communities to come together?  I’m afraid you can’t do that if you represent people from just one and not the other.

 

And don’t think you have only Sinn Féin to worry about.  You see, once we get momentum behind our project, you will start to lose a substantial number of Catholic voters to us.  You might like to reflect that many of those who support academic selection are likely to do that.  This is only the start.  There are many other policies which we have which will be very attractive to many of the voters who previously supported you.

 

Of course, it is not for me to tell you what to do.  After all, I am just a humble Conservative Party activist.  That said, it does seem that there is a way forward for your party to survive and flourish.  It would be of great service to Northern Ireland if you did this thing that I am going to ask of you.

 

I know that your party already has close links with the British Labour Party.  I know that when you find the time to visit the House of Commons and take up your seats, you and your fellow SDLP MPs sit on the Labour benches and you vote on their side almost all of the time. 

 

There is still a wonderful opportunity for you and your party, if you can see the light.  Of course, you will lose Catholic Conservative support but you would lose that anyway.  On the other hand, if you work hard, pursue a purely left of centre line and mothball your Nationalist objects at elections, you will pick up votes from the Protestant community.  You can even do that without ceasing to be a Nationalist Party. 

 

All you have to do is reach a formal agreement with the British Labour Party to represent them cross-community in Northern Ireland for all elections until such time as there is a referendum on the future of Northern Ireland. 

 

I hope you will do me the honour of considering this proposal for the greater good of the people of Northern Ireland

 

Yours sincerely,

 

 

Seymour Major