Nobody will know until it is over

Yesterday, I listened to a BBC TV debate involving Ken Livingstone and Michael Portillo.  I have to say that these two seasoned politicians were enjoyable to listen to as they dished out their analysis.  I was particularly struck by one (almost certainly set-piece) comment from Michael Portillo just at the end of the debate.  He has linked the MP’s expenses scandal with the rise in popularity of Nick Clegg, their policy of electoral reform and the prospect of a hung parliament. 

 “At the beginning of the campaign they [Labour and the Conservatives] thought they could frighten people with the prospect of a hung parliament. 

“At the end of the expenses scandal, OK, the MPs cleaned up the expenses system.  But I think people are kind of looking for some bigger sign that politics is going to be different.  I think people are seeing during this election that by supporting the Lib Dems, not only do they kind of mess up the electoral arithmetic but actually they put this question of electoral reform at centre stage.  So if you link all those things together, I think there’s quite a yearning for that something catastrophic should come out of this election to put right what happened in the last parliament.”

I have a lot of respect for Michael Portillo as a political analyst.  There is a lot of logic in what he says.  Certainly the expenses scandal is something that nearly all of the electorate are affected by.  How that has impacted on each of the party’s fortunes is surely a much more difficult and complex question to gauge.  I hope Michael is wrong.  If he is not, then perhaps the Lib Dem surge might have occurred without a TV debate, as it has done in previous elections.

Political macro mind-reading is a most inexact science.  Journalists try to master it but end up identifying more questions than answers.  The fact is, too many different elements of the campaign influence too many people in too many different ways.  People’s thinking is also likely to change as the campaign continues.    

Perhaps after tonight’s TV debate, we might see one of the parties gain some momentum.  My hunch is that we will be just as clueless about the outcome tonight as we are this morning.  Whatever happens tonight, the Conservatives will retain good prospects of total victory right until the polling booths close next week.

MPs expenses: MPs likely to be hit by one last firestorm

So yet another Minister has fallen as a result of the MPs expenses scandal.   Yet the fall of Kitty Ussher from the treasury was not the main news yesterday in the rolling story of MPs expenses.

Yesterday, it was announced that a censored version of MPs expenses claims are to be published online later today.   The information which has been blanked out from some 1.2 million documents includes addresses of properties.  The Daily telegraph says:

Many of  The Daily Telegraph’s disclosures about MPs’ dubious practices, like the flipping of designated second homes to maximise their financial gains, depend on knowing the addresses of the properties. 

The information has been blanked out by the MPs themselves.   Goodness knows what these MPs were thinking.  Are they so foolish as to believe that journalists and members of the Public will dig until all suspicion has been erased? 

Over the next few days, these MPs are likely to be hit by one last firestorm.  I have little doubt that some of these MPs will be caught, having concealed information which proves that they made unethical claims.  Indeed, for some of them, concealment could make the difference between a criminal charge and no action taken by the prosecution authorities.

Statistically, we must expect that more Conservative MPs will be in trouble.    Many Conservative fingers will be crossed with the hope that this scandal does not further affect any members of the shadow cabinet.

Gordon Brown sees the Leprechauns dashing to the end of the rainbow

Ever since David Cameron became the leader of the Conservative Party, I have hardly had any cause to criticise him for the way he and his team have played their political cards.  Indeed, some of their political footwork has been breathtaking.  

However, there is one particular political “hot potato” which will give the jitters to many conservatives.  It is ‘What to do about the Lisbon Treaty if it is ratified before the Conservatives come to power?’

The Conservatives have promised that they will provide the answer to that question in their general election manifesto.  However, they may not be able to ‘hold their cards to their chest’ until then.  Already, there have been statements from the Conservative camp that they are likely to take a pragmatic approach, as reported today in the Times.   In other words, they intend to accept ratification if it happens and do nothing to try and untangle it.  I would not question the practical wisdom of this approach in terms of the National Interest.  My biggest worry is that the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party could erupt over it. 

There are also political ramifications in terms of the forthcoming General Election.  For one thing, it gives Gordon Brown a motive for delaying the election until 2010.   Labour will remember that the Conservative Party under John Major tore itself apart over Europe.  Nothing would please them more than to see a revival of discord within conservative ranks.  In making that calculation, he would be banking on the Irish to accept the Treaty.   Nothing would please Labour more than to see a revival of internal Conservative division.

In making that calculation, Gordon Brown will be reliant upon the Irish to deliver a “yes” vote in the referendum this Autumn.   One can imagine headlines such as “the Irish give Gordon a lifeline” or something similar. 

Gordon Brown will, of course, have other calculations to make in determining the date of the next general election.  Waiting until next year does have its dangers.  During the winter months following Christmas, there are more likely to be disruptive strikes.  VAT will also go back to 17.5% at the beginning of January with a consequential detriment to Britain’s retail sector.   Also, once proper structures are in place to deal with MP’s expenses, there will be very strong independent arguments for a General Election in the National interest.   The economic news leading into the Autumn will probably show that the recession has technically ended.  During the Autumn, at least, Brown might be able to point to better times ahead.  

It is my belief that but for the prospect of an Irish referendum ratifying Lisbon, most Labour supporters would want Brown would go for an October poll as the their best possible damage limitation exercise.   My hunch is that Gordon Brown will see the Leprechauns dashing to the end of the rainbow.  Never will affairs in Ireland have proved so pivotal to the determination of Britain’s rulers since the Battle of the Boyne.

Could this be the final missile which finishes Brown?

Just as you might have thought that Brown had a reprieve from the Cabinet resignations, yet another expenses shock was revealed in the Telegraph today.

The Daily Telegraph claims that Gordon Brown billed the taxpayer for two second homes

Those within his cabinet who decided to support Brown will be reconsidering their position after this. Need I say anything further?

Expenses – 3 days to go and no sign of an investigation into Nigel Dodds

After yesterday’s broadcast of the Politics Show in which all 7 Northern Irish candidates sat on a question panel, the general consensus within the blogasphere is that the most of the candidates gave a satisfactory performance.    

That would include our own candidate, Jim Nicholson, who would admit that he is not the greatest of performers in a broadcast interview.  Diane Dodds, meanwhile, gave a terrible performance.  Some would describe it as disastrous.   

There have been plenty of negatives about the DUP. Perhaps if the euro election was another year or two later, the Conservatives and Unionists would have made much more political hay than they have so far.  Unfortunately, for the Conservatives and Unionists, the teething problems of putting together a new political force have not yet been overcome.  Lady Sylvia Hermon’s announcement was a symptom of that.    

There is perhaps one more thing which would hit Diane Dodds very hard.  It would be a discovery of unethical claims of Parliamentary expenses by her husband, Nigel Dodds.    

Alastair Darling is under pressure to resign as chancellor following adverse disclosures over his expense claims.  The criticism being levelled at Darling is that as the senior minister in charge of the nation’s finances, the position of trust and confidence will have broken down and he should therefore resign.  If Nigel Dodds, as first minister, were to be similarly scandalised, he would also face pressure to step down.   

I would suggest Diane Dodds would not be able to avoid being tainted by association in such circumstances.  Very few would believe that she would have no knowledge about her husband’s expense claims, particularly when she also is a politician.   

So far, 460 MPs have been investigated after 23 days.  That includes 11 of Northern Ireland’s 18 MPs.  At this rate, we can expect a further 60 MPs to be investigated by the time of voting for the European Elections on Thursday.  That would leave about 130 of them not investigated by the Euro elections.  If there is something to reveal, Mrs. Dodds will be keeping her fingers crossed that there is no disclosure before Thursday.    

Update 2nd June 2009.  Now there are only 3 NI MPs left to investigate.  Dodds still to be investigated.

Northern Ireland claims table 

Shows Nigel Dodds as the second highest claimant on aggregate but it is the breakdown which determines whether the claims were unethical.

Northern Ireland MPs so far Investigated

Peter Robinson,  Iris Robinson,  Martin Maguiness,  Gerry Adams,  Pat Doherty,  Michelle Gildernew,  Conor Murphy,  Mark Durkan,  Jeffrey Donaldson,  Gregory Campbell,  Sylvia Hermon,  Ian Paisley, David Simpson, William McCrea,  Sammy Wilson

Northern Ireland MPs still to be investigated

Nigel Dodds, Eddie McGrady, Alastair McDonnell

The D.U. Peanut

MP couple close to Peter and Iris Robinson set to leave Westminster over expenses

Yesterday, it was announced that Conservative MPs Nicholas and Anne Winterton would not be standing as MPs in their constituencies at the next general election.   

Their reason for leaving appears to be connected with the MP expenses scandal as revealed by yesterday’s Daily Telegraph.   

On January 27^th 2009, a report appeared in the Belfast Newsletter indicating that Conservative MP, Sir Nicholas Winterton, attended a dinner in Ballymena to celebrate Dr. Ian Paisley’s 40 years as an MP.  At the dinner, he was quoted as saying as follows:  

“I am concerned that the arrangement now being entered into between the Conservatives and Unionist Party and the Official Unionists (UUP) in Northern Ireland will divide the vote in marginal constituencies and serve only to let in Sinn Fein.
“Those that seek to divide are doing a disservice to the unionist cause.
“We have a duty not to turn our backs on the unionist people of Northern Ireland whose loyalty to our Queen and country I have never doubted.
“That loyalty should be honoured and reciprocated – but never betrayed.”

It was as a result of this report that I found out more about the close connection between the Wintertons and the DUP MPs including the other MP couple, Peter and Iris Robinson.  Sir Nicholas Winterton voted against the Belfast Agreement.  

After the report, I learned that the Wintertons were very much “one-off” supporters of the DUP within the Conservative Party. 

The Wintertons might be missed by the DUP MPs.  They will not be missed by very many Conservatives.

Peter Robinson does a “U turn” as he ends the DUP’s double jobbing in a panic

Peter Robinson’s decision to end the “double jobbing” of elected representatives is as extraordinary as it is welcome.

It is welcome because it brings one political party nearer to one strand “normal” politics.  It is extraordinary given that it is the party with the largest number of elected representatives in Northern Ireland, yet it is clear that it is playing “catch up” to the initiatives taken by the Conservatives and the UUP.   

The origins of Peter Robinson’s announcement go back to the Memorandum of Understanding agreed between the Conservatives and the UUP last November.  In that Memorandum, it was agreed that nobody would be allowed to become a Conservative and Unionist MP whilst holding a second elected office.  The rules do not prevent a person who holds an elected office standing as a candidate for MP.  However, that candidate must resign their elected office once they are elected as an MP.   

On March 10^th the Assembly debated the following motion to end double jobbing.  

“That this Assembly calls on the Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister to request the UK Government to bring forward legislation to prohibit dual mandates of the devolved institutions in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and the UK Parliament.”

At that time, the DUP voted against the motion.  Not long after that, Sammy Wilson defended the system.  He maintained that he could effectively do his jobs of Councillor, MLA, MP and Minister for the Environment.

After that, the UUP increased the pressure.  Various UUP politicians, including Sir Reg, Empey, made it clear that double jobbing had to end.  What made the DUP change its mind?

Over the last few weeks, a link has appeared in the public mind between double jobbing and overclaiming of expenses.  I would suggest that it is probably this factor, aggravated by backlash against Robinson for his reaction against the press, which has forced the DUP to bring an end to double jobbing within his own party. 

It is extraordinary that this announcement comes less than two weeks to go before the Euro Elections.  DUP supporters can try and dress this up however they like. They will not be able to prevent voters from concluding that the DUP has acted in a panic.

Change of Conservative election tactics now confirmed

The MP expenses scandal has not just caused the biggest political crisis in the United Kingdom since the War.  It seems to have blotted out other political news.  Even the recession, which dominated political news before that, has taken a back stage. 

Yesterday, the news which came out of the Conservative camp did liven up the tedium.   It is now clear that the Conservatives have changed their euro election tactics. 

In Friday’s party political broadcast David Cameron discussed the issue of MPs expenses, instead of talking about European issues.  Yesterday, it was confirmed that the Conservatives are sending out their troops to seek signatures from the public on a petition for an immediate general election.

It is hard to say whether the tactic will bring back Conservative protest voters thinking of voting UKIP.  It is also very hard for anybody, whatever their political persuasion, to disagree that it is now in the national interest for the UK to have a general election.

Allister benefits as he lets the papers make a meal out of the Robinsons

Cast your eye over some of the comments attached to the Belfast Telegraph report on Peter and Irish Robinson and you might notice something that I did.  

It was not just public disgust.  It was anger everywhere.  I believe that we are in for something of a watershed in the European Elections.  Labour will be hit by it.  So will the Conservatives.  There may even be an additional dimension to this in Northern Ireland.

Until last year, the leader of the DUP (previously named the “Protestant Unionist Party) was Revd. Ian Paisley.  This is the man for half a century managed to mix religion and politics.  He was despised by many from the Catholic community.  There was no shortage of bigotry in his speeches.  There was plenty of distortion of facts in a lot of the things he said.  Was he ever found to be dishonest?   

I am not aware of any allegations of dishonesty against Revd. Paisley. It looks very much as though he remains the non-smoking, non-drinking, bible-adherent fundamentalist Protestant.   

One of Paisley’s legacies is that orthodox Protestantism seems to form part of the DUP’s ideology.  That is apparent from some of the things that their politicians say on matters such as creationism.  I am therefore wondering if the impact of the Robinson’s expenses claims will be far greater than just a couple of weeks of embarrassment.  Will a lot of people not feel too let down to forgive or will they more easily forgive?  

One politician who may be wondering if divine intervention is going his way is Jim Allister. Allister is a chip off the old DUP bible-thumping block.  The timing of the scandal could not have been much better for Allister.  In fact, he seems to be so confident about the impact of the story on the Robinsons that he has not even named them directly in his latest post.  He also uses his post to highlight his good transparency in that his expenses are posted on his website.  

There’s only one good piece of news that would top what has already happened – An expense claims scandal against Nigel Dodds. Casting my eye over the table that I published on 31^st March, lo and behold, he is the Northern Ireland MP with the second-highest aggregate expense claim.  Hmmm.