Northern Ireland MPs could be back in the limelight over expenses

With yesterday’s announcement by David Cameron of his initiative to purge the excessive claims of MPs, he has certainly demonstrated leadership and an ability to handle a crisis.   

Whether those intending to vote conservative are sufficiently impressed by Cameron’s actions, we shall have to wait and see.  The next round of opinion polls will be very interesting.   

With Cameron having done all he can and with both Gordon Brown and the Lib Dems having announced their initiatives, the local spotlight will probably now turn back towards the parties in Northern Ireland.   

The Sunday Telegraph this weekend highlighted the expense claims of Sinn Fein MPs.  History makes it unlikely that they will be damaged by it politically. For example, they never lost support after the raid on the Northern Bank.   

What about the DUP?  Last week, Peter Robinson was on the backfoot over an email sent to one of his constituents.   Previously, he displayed anger over the “Swish Family Robinson” news headlines.  He did try to gag the Belfast Telegraph over another matter.  He certainly won’t be able to do that with the Daily Telegraph.

A lawyer’s frustration

From time to time, my thoughts about politics overlap with my experiences in my job.  Today was one such occasion.  

I am a lawyer.  Today, I was at the Family Proceedings Court in Omagh, outside courtroom No. 4.  I had two cases due to be heard this morning.  Both of these cases were review or directions hearings.  These sorts of hearings do not usually last more than a few minutes.  My two cases were listed similarly with a whole load of other children proceedings cases which were listed for directions.  The hearing of the two cases was for 10.30 a.m.  I arrived at 10.15 and waited and waited.  Eventually, at 11.40, the R.M. came to the court and apologised for being held up at a meeting.  The result of all of this was that my case did not get heard in the morning.  With a one- hour adjournment for lunch, I did not get heard until 3.05 pm.   

All of my time for waiting is chargeable to legal aid – in other words the public purse.  There were about 30 other lawyers waiting at the court, whose business was held up by the incident.  They will all have to be paid for that either by legal aid or some cases, by private clients.   

I don’t blame the RM for this.  The circumstances were obviously beyond his control but this is not an isolated incident.  Lawyers will tell you that waiting outside a court for lengthy periods is an occupational hazard.   

There are things that could be done to help this sort of thing.  They could appoint deputy RMs out of the ranks of experienced solicitors who would sit occasionally in the court (say once a month) and help the sitting RM with his caseload of short hearings.  Even though the Deputy RMs expenses would have to be paid, many hours and therefore public money would be saved in the form of waiting time.  There would be no shortage of volunteers to be a deputy RM.  Also, similar systems of part – time judges work very well in England.  I would say that today, some £4,000 of public money could have been saved at Omagh with such a measure.   

This is just one example of many where public money could be saved or freed up in the justice system.  Northern Ireland has been starved of political leadership in this area for many years. Roll on the day that we get a Minister for Police and Justice.   Whoever the new Minister is, he is welcome to give me a call.  I have plenty of  other ideas.

The other anniversary

Today, there are two anniversaries.  The big one, which I have already alluded to in an earlier post two days ago is the 30th Anniversary of Mrs. Thatcher becoming Prime Minister.  

A rather lesser known anniversary is that the current Stormont Executive in which the DUP and Sinn Fein respectively hold the First and Deputy first Ministries, is now two years old.  

Plenty has happened in those two years.  It began with Revd.Ian Paisley becoming the First Minister at the twilight of his career.  Going into partnership with Sinn Fein prompted much anger amongst many of the DUP’s own supporters.  This has caused a schism within the DUP.  Their MEP, Jim Allister, resigned from the DUP, formed his own party and took with him a very substantial chunk of their support.  We do not yet know how much of the DUP is left.  There have been no opinion polls and the only yardstick we have had is the Dromore Council by-election.  

Ian Paisley retired to make way for Peter Robinson.  Straight away, there was difficulty as Sinn Fein boycotted executive meetings in response to apparent failure to devolve policing and justice.  This was a battle of nerves which the DUP eventually won.  Having accepted that they all faced electoral fallout if they did not get back to Government, they reached a deal on devolution of Police and Justice last November.  The DUP now control the timing of devolution of Police and Justice.   

The months of Executive inactivity meant that the Executive had to act quickly on certain matters.  They almost tripped over themselves as they brought in the Financial Assistance Bill described by some politicians as “emergency powers” legislation to enable certain welfare payments including winter fuel poverty allowances to be paid.  In the middle of the debate on the Bill, Mark Durkan fell foul of Parliamentary standards.   

At about the same time, it was near “crunch time” on academic selection.  With no yielding from the Unionists, no legislation could be brought forth to end it.  The Education Minister, Catriona Ruane faced with two assembly motions to put temporary tests in place chose to leave matters at an impasse.  This has forced Grammar Schools to “do their own thing.”  In effect, the system remains without a centrally organized transfer test exam and no orderly system for the administration of admissions.   

With the impact of the recession increasing, it was inevitable that the pre-agreed financing of the Programme for Government might need to be revised.  Pressure has come to bear on Nigel Dodds, the Minister for Finance to reach agreement through the executive for changes to the finance package. UUP politicians have made reference to a 1 billion “black hole” which so far, Dodds has denied. On the other hand, there has been recent acknowledgement by the DUP that there will have to be cuts in public spending.  This issue is set to develop further.    

The most colourful of Northern Ireland’s politicians is the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.  Who ever would have thought that the Minister for the Environment would turn out to be a denier that climate change was man made?  Who would have thought that he would have interfered with Government advertising campaigns to help people save energy? Rumour is growing around Stormont that Sammy Wilson will be removed after the June 4^th election.  If that is true, it will take away some of the fun for journalists and bloggers like me.  To be honest though, it would be the right decision.    

Other ministries have had a relatively quiet time, or have they?  Margaret Ritchie, the   Minister has been in the spotlight recently for having her decision to withdraw funding for Farset, which was quashed by the Courts.  Michele Gildernew, the Agriculture Minister, gave a demonstration of how ideology affected decision-making in her department.  She also  became embroiled in controversy over the handing out of grants under the Rural Development Programme for Northern Ireland (2007-13)   

Dissident Republican terrorism brought about the murder of a police officer and two soldiers.  The First Minister and Deputy First Minister had the opportunity to display solidarity.  Martin McGuiness, in particular, sailed as far as anybody from his party could go on criticizing the dissidents with his now famous quote: “they are traitors to the Island of Ireland.”   

Overall, it has been an interesting two years.  We have seen the parties bash each other like never before.  The opposition have scored some hits, most notably over double jobbing and expenses whilst the DUP and Sinn Fein have scored a massive own-goal over bullying and their war with the media.   

Of course, the defects in power sharing are there for all to see.  There is no such thing as collective cabinet responsibility and there is resultantly much more negativity in decision making.  The impasse on educational issues is a classic example of that. 

The next two years of the Executive are likely to be just as interesting as the first two.   In the Belfast Telegraph today, the Challenges facing the Executive have been identified in the areas of Devolution of Policing and Justice,  Education,  Irish Language,  National Stadium Funding,  the Review of Public Administration and Parades.  These are all contentious issues, yet somehow I feel that cuts in public spending will be at the centre of contention.   

As the recession continues to bite, one is left wondering how vulnerable to negative voter opinion the UUP and the SDLP are as occupiers of the 3 most high-spending ministries.  Will they be politically vulnerable to high-profile spending cuts?  Will the DUP be tempted to try and abuse its position as the controller of Finance Ministry?  We shall see.

Property prices follow forecast trend

As the Times has reported, the latest figures from Nationwide show a disappointing fall in house prices in the first quarter of 2009 following reports of a possible pickup through other indicators. 

In an earlier post,  I published a graph of the Nationwide index showing actual and predicted trends.  The prediction made in my earlier post has proved to be very accurate.   The average Northern Ireland price has fallen to £138,527 – only a £300 difference from the slightly worse figure that I predicted.  

Below is a fresh graph based on the latest figures with my forecast.  The forecast has not been adjusted from previously.  UK house prices are the yellow line.  Northern Ireland prices are the blue line.  

One big question is this.  Which is the bigger external influence to Northern Ireland prices?  Is it the UK market or is it the Republic of Ireland market?  

Certainly the bubble of 2006/7 seems to have been influenced by a last minute rush of investors from the Republic of Ireland and the subsequent property market crash there.  Has this factor now been cancelled out by the very steep falls in prices or is there worse to come?  

The social and political impact of the property market crash in Northern Ireland has barely entered the radar of discussion amongst politicians.   Prices in Northern Ireland have fallen by 29.6% in the last 12 months.  I expect discussion on this topic to increase as more homes are repossessed.

Northern Ireland economy set to become an oasis of growth within a devastated UK economy

By the time most people have read this post, it will have been announced that unemployment in the UK has passed the two million mark for the first time in 12 years.  

Gordon Brown will, of course, pass this off as a global recession.  What will mark our country out from others will be the rate at which we can recover and grow our economy when the recession ends.  

We have already had some indication about that.  According to an IMF forecast reported in The Times, Britain’s economy is set to shrink by a further 0.2% during 2010 whilst all other leading economies in the World are expected to enjoy very small growth.  

In that case, unemployment will probably rise to 3.5 million in the UK.  

The Northern Ireland economy may be in a different situation to the rest of the UK.  In Northern Ireland, the public sector represents 77% of GDP.  Having a top-heavy public sector will mean that in the short and medium term, the recession will not be as crippling for the Northern Ireland economy as it will be in England.  Meanwhile, Northern Ireland is already benefiting from a low pound against the euro, particularly in the retail sector as shoppers from the Irish Republic go North to buy their goods.   

The Conservatives have already promised that Northern Ireland will be granted special tax exemption status as part of a drive to re-balance its economy.  I sense that in the years to come, Northern Ireland could become a beacon of investment opportunity for businesses.  Let us hope so.  At the very least, it seems set to become an oasis of growth within a devastated UK economy.

First Minister should call all parties holding ministerial offices for a review of the budget

At a business breakfast in Lisburn, the First Minister, Peter Robinson, gave a speech which was directed towards politicians in the Assembly who might be critical of NI Government spending plans and the setting of the budget.

MLAs who are suggesting more expenditure for particular projects came under fire. I quote directly from the report in yesterday’s Belfast Telegraph

“Instead of grand-standing and proposing areas which would benefit from greater expenditure I challenge those who want changes to make suggestions and proposals concerning where across the public sector we can free-up additional resources to divert to projects which can directly assist Northern Ireland through the economic problems,” he said.

“The days of asking for more money in one area without considering the implications for another are over. Some projects that are presently planned may be worthy projects in themselves but may not be justifiable in the present circumstances when the need to get our economy moving is the priority,” the First Minister added.

There are plenty of matters on which I disagree with Mr. Robinson.  On this particular point, he is correct.  In fact, a statement like this was very much overdue.  MLAs are not responsible for setting the budget.  However, it is their duty as politicians to take into account the National interest.  That means addressing political problems with a balanced view, taking into account the limits of funding available from Government.  If too many MLAs fail in this regard, the Assembly will never mature as a political arena.  Indeed elections would be reduced to a race to become the favourite Uncle who dishes out the goodies.

My approval of Mr. Robinson’s speech on Friday ends there.  The next part of it refers to the setting of the budget.  Again, I quote from the Belfast Telegraph:

“Those who glibly talk about the need for a new budget possibly mean that we should consider re-allocations. This can be done at Executive level but there is even greater opportunity within departmental budgets… This is the time for Ministers to critically review everything that their departments are doing and ask if this represents the best use of public expenditure in the present circumstances.

“In some departments money could quickly be redirected into the construction sector to address long-standing maintenance needs and away from less urgent priorities. When added to the considerable amount that is already being done this could make an important contribution to keeping this sector working,”

In a previous post, I argued that Nigel Dodds was wrong not to discuss re-setting the budget with the other parties.  Mr. Robinson’s words “This can be done at executive level” may be an indication of a partial “U” turn and a real recognition that there is indeed a “black hole” in the budget figures. However, Mr. Robinson’s main emphasis was on the need for individual departments to come up with their own savings.  This suggestion will not work.  It pre-supposes that individual Ministers, who have elections to think about, will take a global view of the budget on their own.  Their priority will be to present themselves in the best possible light as individual ministers, rather than as part of a government team.  It is a fair bet that they will spend all the money that is available to them.  This highlights a defect in the Power Sharing system, but we are stuck with it for the near future.

The only way that significant savings are likely to be made is if the Executive meets together and re-negotiates the budget holistically and not merely with a view to re-allocating.  Actual spending cuts are very likely to be needed.  The UUP have already offered to participate in a budget review.  So should all the other parties.  It is the responsibility of the First Minister to invite the other parties holding ministerial offices to such a review.  He may yet grasp that he has to do that.

DUP wrong not to try to reach consensus with other parties over public finances

What has Nigel Dodds got in common with Gordon Brown as a politician?  They are both being accused of being in denial over the state of public finances.

Quite obviously, the problems of Gordon Brown’s denial are far greater than those connected with Nigel Dodds but the latter could be a serious problem for the people of Northern Ireland. 

It had been pointed out by the UUP spokesman on Finances, David McNarry, that there was a “black hole” in the budget amounting to £1.1 billion.  This has been corroberated, to a certain extent, by the Minister for Social Development, Margaret Ritchie, who has said that her department alone will suffer a £200 million shortfall over the next two years.  Sinn Fein and DUP ministers in other departments have been less vociferous.  Is this a coincidence?

The DUP’s response to this criticism came from a spokeswoman in the Department of Finance.  To quote the Newsletter of 22nd January, she said 

“the minister had made it clear that the shortfall would be accounted for by clawing back underpsends from departments at the end of the financial years and by taking “tough choices”, that is, cutting schemes that had been scheduled”

By way of further explanation, the spokesperson said

“”In terms of the £1.1 billion, a large number of the spending proposals put forward as part of the Strategic Stock take process are discretionary or even speculative, whilst others may not materialise to the extent currently forecast by departments.”

Having seen Margaret Ritchie’s interview in the Politics Show, it would seem that her budget is hardly “discretionary or speculative”.  She was talking about genuine shortfalls in spending requirements for much needed social housing.

The DUP has been invited by the UUP to meet, discuss and re-assess the programme for Government.  Yesterday at Stormont, Nigel Dodds defended his budget and firmly rejected a re-write of the programme for Government.

I am not in possession of the facts.  I only have the media plus the utterances of politicians on their websites to go on.   If these “black holes” turn out to be correct then either there will be a budget deficit which will lead to greater deterioration in the finances of the NI Government in the future or certain government programmes will run out of money and come to a grinding halt.    

I dont know who is right.  If the DUP is wrong, then somewhere down the line it should suffer the political consequences.   Meanwhile, confidence is important to all of us, particularly, when we are probably in the worst recessions since the 1930s.  Whether Dodds  is right or not, the suspicion of a “black hole” will remain.  By failing to engage with its political opponents with a detailed discussion about the programme for government with a view of reaching consensus, the DUP has not acted in the national interest.